It is now weenie talk time. I say weenie because it involves 1984-5:
1. For SAV among other places, Dec 2021 will end up warmer than Nov 2021 by a whopping ~3F per current forecasts. The only time back to the 1870s that Dec ended up more than 3 warmer than Nov was 1984, when it was 3.7 warmer.
2. For RDU and ATL, forecasts have Dec slightly warmer than Nov. In 1984, Dec was also warmer than Nov. (by the biggest amount on record at RDU and the 3rd biggest at ATL).
3. After a BN Nov of 1984, Dec of 1984 was one of the warmest on record at all 3 and even warmer than the forecast for Dec of 2021.
4. The last half of Dec of 1984 had a strong -PNA, strong +NAO, and +AO. The MJO was in phase 5 and then 6. There was a -EPO.
5. Jan had -EPO, a strong +PNA and -NAO, and a very strong -AO.
6. ENSO of late 1984 was very similar to that of now. Also, it, too, was a 2nd year La Niña.
7. January of 1985 was extreme I realize. So, expecting a repeat in January of 2022 would still be quite weenie even with these many strong similarities in 2021 preceding it. But who’s to say that at least part of January of 2022 won’t slightly resemble January of 1985?
End of weenie talk.
PS it is pretty obvious that we go from -PNA to +PNA to best resemble January of 1985’s indices.