Thing of beauty, finally a better run for jan 
Pattern Januworry
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
More lower heights around the Aleutians, higher heights in NW can/AK
Even the UK is sucking it up. Just like the east coast they're usually under a trough with a -NAO. The Pac ridge is screwing the whole pattern. The west coast trough is pumping the SER so the trough that should be over the east is in the north Atlantic and pumping a ridge over the UK. What a screwed up pattern from what it should be.
Absolutely terrible run. Nothing evolves in any way shape or form the way we need for it to, I'm sorry to say. Onto 0z.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
From first glance it looks like the GEFS may have been a bit better later in the run
I miss the positive rain_cold! ?
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I'm positive that run sucked. We need less hoping and more meteorology. We have a persistent pattern within a persistent pattern. A trough wants to be out west this winter. And a trough wants to be out west almost every winter. That won't always be the case this year or in any given year. But that's the way it is right now. It's going to take more than a happy RMM diagram to fix it.
Every good looking happy upper air pattern seems to still have yellows and oranges over the SE at the surface. That's aggravating.
Sudden stratospheric warming should do the trick. Judah Cohen says when it happens, which it might, it could spill to either side of the northern hemisphere and dump cold sometime somewhere on either side of the Arctic circle. Cross your fingers and stay tuned as this develops.
Even when it’s a good run all we hear is too far out so what’s the difference lol
Average temps, probably. Streamlines are at least not strongly out of the SW.
Are you happy now? No more SE yellows!
I’m other words, build the -NAO and -AO and it will come to sort of borrow a line from a great movie.
I mean it's ok. It's better than hot but it still isn't going to snow with beige to light blue. Hopefully, that is setting the table for the appetizer that whets the appetite that primes the pump for the real thing later on.
Consistency is the key. For every good run you then get 5 bad runs. There is way more bad than good in the modeling right now. If this thing is going to flip the 1st part of January we need to see a decent evolution start showing up with some consistency over the next few days. We still have a little time but the time is very near to find out if if all our hoping is actually going to become reality.
Exactly, this is around the transition period of the mean of 30 members. Some come earlier and others come later.
PS It isn’t going to snow here barring a miracle because that’s my climo. I just want the November cold pattern to return because I just like it cold, period. Snow is not something on many people’s mind in SAV, I can assure you.