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Pattern Januworry

Rain Cold said:
I don't think it's written in stone anywhere for us not to have a period in January where it gets cold. And I don't mean to indicate that the models are showing an unending torch pattern. They're not. They could be, and that would be bad. The cold could be out of NA completely. That would be bad. But that's not the case either. But in any event, it seems pretty unlikely that we'll slip into a favorable winter pattern for the SE within the next two weeks. Doesn't mean it for sure won't happen. But it would be unwise to consider that the most likely outcome.
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Yep as bad as this is it takes less time to get out of this since we have a very amplified pattern with plenty of cold in NA. If we had to build blocking and get cold over to this side of the world we'd be looking at weeks to do that. This could be flipped pretty quickly if we could just move that feature in the Pacific a little. But that's asking a lot at the moment.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty easy to see why this gefs run is cooler, we took a baby step to this look. Unfortunately we’re probably gonna take steps back and forth, and for that solution to happen above, we need some sizable changes View attachment 98671View attachment 98672
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Just goes to show that if we move the ridge in the GOA anywhere it’s still an improvement over what we have now. A nudge towards the Aleutians could encourage the subtropical ridge to move toward the southern Rockies and desert SW
 
cd2play said:
I don’t see how the PNA is going to suddenly flip. -PNA’s tend to last all winter, once started.
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No teleconnection lasts in one position for an entire season. You will get short term periods of fluctuations. That tends to be when we score winter storms. Even a neutral PNA coupled with a -NAO would be greatly beneficial to the entire southeast. You can dump cold air southeast without dropping the hammer of cold and we get suppression.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I think it was @Ollie Williams that posted the Dec 2010-Jan 2011 pattern but I can't find it now. It may have been Webber. Either way it was a west based -NAO and also had an Aleutian ridge and no ridging out west and we still were cold and had snow. I don't get it. I'm going to join @Rain Cold on the dark side and agree this is a very persistent stubborn pattern and it holds on regardless of what the indices say and only breaks when it wants to. We clearly don't understand all the forces at work that drive patterns.
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I've discussed about this in my article about a new oscillation that I'm implementing. You can find the link to my article in the whamby thread.

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

It's the cold hard truth. You cling to anything and everything that shows even so much as an inkling of a favorable look for snow/ice, even if it's out at hour 10000000000000. No really what did the 10000 hour cfs show??
southernwx.com
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yep the 0z suite totally sucked. No end in sight for this stupid strong/persistent -PNA
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The GOA ridge really never moves to a position thats favorable on Models, which forces a strongly -PNA. What shame we are wasting a winter where we have the coldest air on the Northern Hemisphere and -NAO/AO on this. Congratulations to Seattle,WA and Portland,OR I guess.
 
Yep goes to the point that we in the SE need a +PNA. I know there are exceptions but generally we need a big western ridge to push storm tracks to our south. Otherwise we just keep getting storm tracks up through the great lakes which also keep the coldest air in the west.
 
The last couple of days on the GEFS weren’t too bad temp wise. Still not ideal for snow but more seasonable temps. All it takes is one week like Seattle is getting and everyone on this board will be happy
 
Loganelliott99 said:
The last couple of days on the GEFS weren’t too bad temp wise. Still not ideal for snow but more seasonable temps. All it takes is one week like Seattle is getting and everyone on this board will be happy
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It looks like a mirage to me overall. The GOA ridge doesn’t move at all through the end of the run. We’re stuck in the same ? as we’re in now
 
The 6z op GFS shows one of the synoptic pathways I mentioned yesterday wrt how we get out this crap. The Okhotsk vortex comes out into the Bering Sea and Aleutians, speeds up/extends the pacific jet, forcing the GOA to move eastward closer to the west coast. Still would not a good or great pattern by any means but it would be an improvement over what we have now.
1F494C4F-8D03-4AD5-8F61-0FB2D6A72C1B.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
View attachment 98679View attachment 98680View attachment 98681
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As bad as the H5 pattern looks on the west coast, I think the -NAO/-AO is going to cause changes like this the closer we get to the short range. Obviously nowhere near what we want for snow but it keeps you generally average or slightly below average which in this pattern is about all you can ask for. But if that -NAO starts breaking down, everyone west of the apps is going to roast and everyone east can get saved every now and again from CAD but still will get warm as well.
 
FallsLake said:
Yep goes to the point that we in the SE need a +PNA. I know there are exceptions but generally we need a big western ridge to push storm tracks to our south. Otherwise we just keep getting storm tracks up through the great lakes which also keep the coldest air in the west.
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I’d settle for neutral or even -1 at this rate.

EPS forecast is all the way down near -6 ?
AA43C576-FAFD-4764-8A6F-228FDD4A5063.jpeg
 
I don't think anyone knows exactly what we need to get snow here anymore.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’d settle for neutral or even -1 at this rate.

EPS forecast is all the way down near -6 ?
View attachment 98696
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Thanks for posting that. The PNA is like the NAO for WxBell in that their numbers are inflated vs NCEP. They’re forecasting -6, which is way more negative than any NCEP PNA on record. So, they clearly use a different scale. Just to compare, NCEP’s forecast has it dipping to -2 vs the WxBell’s -6. On an NCEP basis, -2 is a very strong -PNA:

5B93ABC8-6C17-431C-AF9E-9B707B7E322C.gif

OTOH, WxBell’s AO numbers seem to be consistent with NCEP.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks for posting that. The PNA is like the NAO for WxBell in that their numbers are inflated vs NCEP. They’re forecasting -6, which is way more negative than any NCEP PNA on record. So, they clearly use a different scale. Just to compare, NCEP’s forecast has it dipping to -2 vs the WxBell’s -6. On an NCEP basis, -2 is a very strong -PNA:

View attachment 98700

OTOH, WxBell’s AO numbers seem to be consistent with NCEP.
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We're currently on pace to potentially set a record for strongest -PNA in December.
 
NorthDFWwx said:
Oh my. The 06z GFS run was pretty ugly (for those who are sick of the warmth) until the very end.

-PNA wins again! :p
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Pattern persistence…it’s undeniable. Also seems there are trends carrying on from year to year. Seems the south has gotten warmer and maybe less snowy while the Pac NW is a veritable snowtopia.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
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