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Pattern Januworry

Rain Cold said:
I keep hearing that, and statistically speaking that may be true...but I can't figure out why, if that's the case, we keep seeing the rest of the country get cold except for the SE, even though we're progged to be in phase 7 for the next 2 weeks. Is snowfall more likely in late Jan phase 7 or in an El Nino phase 7 or a la nada phase 7 or just in the mountains phase 7? Or is it just generally, in the winter, we get more snow in phase 7, irrespective of everything else. Not trying to be a negative Nancy, just trying to understand, because the stats don't pass the eye test right now for me. I don't see anything shown on the models for the next 2 weeks that looks snowy for NC, even though we're going to be in phase 7.

Anyway, how's the CFS?
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I’ve already posted about this

Webberweather53 said:
Phase 7, 8, & null are most favorable generally speaking for winter weather in the Carolinas for our 4 snowiest months of the year (Dec-Jan-Feb-Mar (DJFM).

As @GaWx has pointed out many times, null RMM MJO is also good for cold/snow and I can reaffirm that (again) here. As an extension of an earlier post on here a week or so ago, when you break down the daily winter storm probabilities in each MJO phase also down by ENSO, it looks like that favorability in null is most enhanced during El Nino winters, whereas in La Ninas like this year, phase 7-8 are actually more conducive. Phase 8 is arguably the best for winter weather in a La Nina, but 7 is a very close second. Imo, I don't have a sufficient sample size of MJO data or winter storms to draw conclusions for individual months, and this relationship being averaged over the winter season will be different for certain MJO + ENSO phases in Feb & esp Mar vs Dec-Jan when the wavelengths start to change (shorten) and we start to move out of the Austral summer monsoon season.

View attachment 98257

Data source:
Nov-Apr Daily Teleconnections and NC Winter Storms List (1948-2021)
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metwannabe said:
There is no favorable phase anymore, things don't work like they used too and as far as the eye can see it's torch with intermittent cool shots but no pattern that favors winter in the SE. Our small window of opportunity in January is closing, La Nina Febs suck and who wants snow in March anyway. Next
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Whamby


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’ve already posted about this
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Thanks. Must have missed it between the womps and ⛳ and stuff. It sounds like there seems to be a correlation but the sample size is a bit too small to be sure. Anyway, the model depictions aren't very encouraging right now. If we get closer to phase 8, I suspect/hope we'll see a change.
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks. Must have missed it between the womps and ⛳ and stuff. It sounds like there seems to be a correlation but the sample size is a bit too small to be sure. Anyway, the model depictions aren't very encouraging right now. If we get closer to phase 8, I suspect/hope we'll see a change.
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Yeah you need to pay attention ? Oh wait, whamby, oof
 
Rain Cold said:
Thanks. Must have missed it between the womps and ⛳ and stuff. It sounds like there seems to be a correlation but the sample size is a bit too small to be sure. Anyway, the model depictions aren't very encouraging right now. If we get closer to phase 8, I suspect/hope we'll see a change.
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MJO helps us somewhat in La Nina, it has largely no effect in El Niño (except less snow in Indian Ocean and maritime continent):
 
The 100-day low pass MJO, equatorial Rossby wave + constructed analog I think has the overall idea overall right. Our best window of opportunity (still) looks to be early-mid January, then we transition back into a warm/torchy pattern during the late stages of the month and into early Feb where we likely stay

Constructed Analog

www.atmos.albany.edu
 
Webberweather53 said:
The 100-day low pass MJO, equatorial Rossby wave + constructed analog I think has the overall idea overall right. Our best window of opportunity (still) looks to be early-mid January, then we transition back into a warm/torchy pattern during the late stages of the month and into early Feb where we likely stay

Constructed Analog

www.atmos.albany.edu
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Well that's depressing. But I don't believe we torch all the rest of winter, regardless of the analog. I imagine we have another couple of decent windows for something later on in Feb and probably early March.
 
Rain Cold said:
Well that's depressing. But I don't believe we torch all the rest of winter, regardless of the analog. I imagine we have another couple of decent windows for something later on in Feb and probably early March.
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I’m generally doubtful, it’s very hard to shake off a torch in February during a La Niña, esp when the climate is already very warm as is. Examples of good La Niña Februarys are very few and far in between.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I’m generally doubtful, it’s very hard to shake off a torch in February during a La Niña, esp when the climate is already very warm as is. Examples of good La Niña Februarys are very few and far in between.
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I hear you. I'm thinking a one to two week window in there somewhere.
 
All of the seasonal models consistently have shown Feb being warm and this is very typical of La Nina's. March can go either way, warm or cold and very volatile
 
I was hoping the weekend would fix the models. The GOA ridge does not want to move much. On the GEFS, it started to shift east from the 31st to January 3rd and stopped. Enough to get the Midwest in on the fun. I don't know if that's just noise or it was a pattern shift, but it's going to need to keep going to get us in the game IMO.

Persistence forecasting is hard to beat. Until that ridge shifts east or to the pole, I don't think we see a change in pattern in our back yards at all. I'm starting to punt early January, or at least the first week. I would have liked to see a clear transition on the ensembles by now if it were early January.

And my feeling is still until we get out of phase 7 into 8 or close to it, we don't change the overall theme of the western trough. I get the statistics of 7 but something's got to break the pattern and unless the models are all wrong for next week, 7 is not doing it. The pattern doesn't have a clock and read "oh January" now let's change IMO. Some force has to push it. Not sure what that is at this point. If we go back to 6, we're done turn out the lights for a while.

gfs-ens_T2ma_nhem_65.png
 
Relax guys. The artic air will come in January. And it’s not gonna be just a cold shot here or there it’s gonna be legit. The pattern is going to change rapidly and catch some off guard. You will start to see it reflect in the models this coming weekend. Be patient.
 
The next few weeks are a good reminder that while the stratosphere is certainly influential and can be really important from time to time, it's far from the only factor that modulates NAO/AO variability in the troposphere. We have a pretty strong and persistent -NAO to contend with through early-mid January and the stratosphere is pretty cold atm. Oth, I think if we disrupt the stratosphere between now and then it could allow the -NAO to hang around longer into late Jan/Feb, but I'm not holding out much hope for this scenario atm.

ecmwf-ensemble-avg-nhemi-z500_anom_7day-0563200.png

gfs_nh-namindex_20211219.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol this is the best mean in several runs and it wasn’t even great at H5 View attachment 98576
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That’s what I mean. Not a bad overrunning potential pattern if we can tap at the SER. I don’t think we’ll see the TPV over SE Canada, which would be ideal. However, if we can stick with a manageable SER, we may not be in horrible shape.
 
Ollie Williams said:
That’s what I mean. Not a bad overrunning potential pattern if we can tap into the SER. I don’t think we’ll see the TPV over SE Canada, which would be ideal. However, if we can stick with a manageable SER, we may not be in horrible shape.
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Great point, nice 50/50 to keep return SW flow in check at least in the low levels
 
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