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Pattern Januworry

This is straight up garbage

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Rain Cold said:
You say this every year. But we really haven't had many "good" patterns for snow in a long time. Just because you hear people on here talking about a favorable index doesn't mean that it's a good pattern. There are lots of people who do know what a good pattern is for snow. To say that we don't know what a good pattern is is just incorrect.
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I disagree. Even when we do have a pattern that produced in the past and is favrobale for producing snow here, it's still harder than it used to be with that same pattern to actually get it to produce. That's my point.
 
Brick Tamland said:
I disagree. Even when we do have a pattern that produced in the past and is favrobale for producing snow here, it's still harder than it used to be with that same pattern to actually get it to produce. That's my point.
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Ok sounds good. Tell you what...I know how we can know for sure. Let me know when you look at a current pattern and analyze it and feel that it is a good pattern for snow. Then, we'll talk about it and see how it turns out. Sound like a good plan?
 
Rain Cold said:
Ok sounds good. Tell you what...I know how we can know for sure. Let me know when you look at a current pattern and analyze it and feel that it is a good pattern for snow. Then, we'll talk about it and see how it turns out. Sound like a good plan?
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Webber gave me a thumbs up on that post, so...

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Brick Tamland said:
Webber gave me a thumbs up on that post, so...
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So is that a yes or is that the typical spin and walk away? Because if you're going to make the same definitive statements year after year, you ought to be willing to test them. Post reactions really aren't a good test.

Just tell me when you see a snow pattern and we'll look at it and see what it produces. That sounds fair, right? And no rush, there's going to be plenty of time before we have to worry about it.
 
Rain Cold said:
So is that a yes or is that the typical spin and walk away? Because if you're going to make the same definitive statements year after year, you ought to be willing to test them. Post reactions really aren't a good test.

Just tell me when you see a snow pattern and we'll look at it and see what it produces. That sounds fair, right? And no rush, there's going to be plenty of time before we have to worry about it.
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There have been times in the past where people have said we were in a good pattern, when we had good indexes that are more favorable for snow compared to other factors, and it still didn't produce. I don't know how you can't see in general we have had patterns that mets themselves say are what we need to see for snow, but they still don't produce snow for us as often now as they did in the past.

We may not have the good patterns as often, either, but when we do have patterns that mets say are better for snow here they still don't end up producing as often as they used to.
 
Brick Tamland said:
There have been times in the past where people have said we were in a good pattern, when we had good indexes that are more favorable for snow compared to other factors, and it still didn't produce. I don't know how you can't see in general we have had patterns that mets themselves say are what we need to see for snow, but they still don't produce snow for us as often now as they did in the past.

We may not have the good patterns as often, either, but when we do have patterns that mets say are better for snow here they still don't end up producing as often as they used to.
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I just don't see why it's hard for you to look at a pattern and tell me when it is a good one for snow. Lots of people say this or that in weather weenie world. That doesn't make it so. You tell me when you see a good snow pattern and we'll check it out.
 
This is what I look for when considering if the pattern is good or not for snow here. It's based on research from the NC Climate Office. I believe when we do have the good factors that this research says we need for snow here it still doesn't produce as often now as when we had these factors in the past.

On a seasonal time scale, NC snowfall departures are inversely related to departures in the NAO. In other words, a negative NAO is often observed with increased snowfall in North Carolina.

Excluding March, winter months that averaged a negative NAO experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of snow days compared to the 52 year average, while positive NAO months had at least a 25% decrease in snow days.

On a daily timescale, it appears that trends in the NAO can be used to detect enhanced potential for winter weather in NC. When the NAO has been in a negative phase (allowing cold air to become entrenched across the region), and then begins to increase towards a neutral phase, it appears that significant NC snowfalls become more likely.

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months.

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña).

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

Homepage - North Carolina State Climate Office

Bodie Island Lighthouse on the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. (Photo by Kurt Moses/National Park Service) From The Mountains To The Outer Banks The North Carolina State Climate Office serves as the primary scientific extension resource for weather and climate science for the state of North...
legacy.climate.ncsu.edu legacy.climate.ncsu.edu
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
RMM isn’t gonna show all of whats going on in the background View attachment 98730View attachment 98731
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Glad you're feeling a bit better Fro, hang in there!! Chicken noodle soup.....and cup o Ramen counts!

In this pattern, in this background state, this is it IMO. We stay in 7 we stay in Aleutian Ridge prison; no pattern change and no snow. We move the forcing east, ridge slides east and we're rocking and rolling IMO. I guess it's time to just sit back and wait and hope it doesn't go backwards. Hopefully it moves on the second half of January. Honestly it doesn't seem like the first half is going to work out.
 
Brick Tamland said:
This is what I look for when considering if the pattern is good or not for snow here. It's based on research from the NC Climate Office. I believe when we do have the good factors that this research says we need for snow here it still doesn't produce as often now as when we had these factors in the past.

On a seasonal time scale, NC snowfall departures are inversely related to departures in the NAO. In other words, a negative NAO is often observed with increased snowfall in North Carolina.

Excluding March, winter months that averaged a negative NAO experienced at least a 25% increase in the number of snow days compared to the 52 year average, while positive NAO months had at least a 25% decrease in snow days.

On a daily timescale, it appears that trends in the NAO can be used to detect enhanced potential for winter weather in NC. When the NAO has been in a negative phase (allowing cold air to become entrenched across the region), and then begins to increase towards a neutral phase, it appears that significant NC snowfalls become more likely.

Our results found that a negative NAO combined with a positive ENSO phase (El Niño) resulted in the most snow days on average, with an increase of 25% (or more) in snow days for all four winter months.

A positive NAO combined with a negative ENSO (La Niña) resulted in the greatest decrease in average snow days. This is due to a lack of cold air (results of a typical positive NAO), and less active subtropical jet stream (results of a typical La Niña).

NAO had the most significant impact on snow days. Even in winter months that featured La Niña conditions (typically warm and dry), combined with a negative NAO, only February saw a decrease in snow days, which suggests that the NAO has a more direct influence on NC snowfall than ENSO. The reason behind this is that the NAO directly impacts the large scale atmospheric pattern over the eastern U.S. on a daily timescale, whereas the ENSO pattern indirectly effects the eastern U.S. atmospheric pattern by altering global circulations, and does so on monthly to seasonal timescales.

Homepage - North Carolina State Climate Office

Bodie Island Lighthouse on the Cape Hatteras National Seashore. (Photo by Kurt Moses/National Park Service) From The Mountains To The Outer Banks The North Carolina State Climate Office serves as the primary scientific extension resource for weather and climate science for the state of North...
legacy.climate.ncsu.edu legacy.climate.ncsu.edu
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A -NAO is not a snow pattern. You can copy and paste text describing indexes, but that doesn't tell you about a pattern that is good for snow. A winter storm pattern is more than an index. The data you described above says that there is a positive correlation to a -NAO and particularly within an El Nino. I'm not going to dare ask you why that is the case, but the El Nino case is not applicable this year. Just let me know when you look at a map and see a snowy pattern and we'll talk about it then.
 
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