Pattern Januworry

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

I know it's la la land but at least the arctic blast was under 350 this time and imo it looked like the changes that occurred that allowed that cold to finally come SE starting to take shape around 240, so pattern change still may very well be on schedule here.

meh. I’d wait and see if the GEFS agrees

 

[Metwannabe]

meh. I’d wait and see if the GEFS agrees

Meh nobody stating it as gospel but since your the authority on it I'll wait on the gefs before I start to like our chances

 

[NCSNOW]

12z GFS wasn't bad. It bring the first freeze of the season to many in the deep south region on the morning of January 3, with highs struggling to get to the 50s on Monday across the area. At least the pattern shift seems be getting its date bearings now - right after the New Year.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Has the GEFS been trending cooler on Christmas? (For the Carolinas) never mind just looked at the 2m temps

 

[Wild Weather Monger]

Just a little difference of model opinions lol.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

It’s only 39 degrees at noon with the sun out. Feels like jackpot Jan to me

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yeah the GEFS is nothing like the GFS. We tosd the the GFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Pretty confusing trend

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looks better probably because the stronger west based NAO block

 

[GaWx]

12Z GEFS looks pretty good to me.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Gefs looking better so far !

 

[Myfrotho704_]

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I just don’t know if we’ll +PNA, but as long as we keep the -NAO, we have a shot. December-jan 2010 is a pretty classic example, need lower heights more heavyweight towards us tho not the west coast

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Actually warmer 2m temps than last run ?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lots of options on the table, but from what I’m seeing, the pattern favors overrunning and the western SE more, which makes sense

 

[Webberweather53]

There's really not a whole lot to be encouraged about w/ the 12z GEFS.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Lower heights over us but more -PNA due to a more amped ridge over AK

 

[Webberweather53]

The reason I say there really isn't anything to be encouraged about on the 12z GEFS, the pattern near the end of the run is literally no different than the one we're dealing with around Christmas.

 

[Webberweather53]

The reason I say there really isn't anything to be encouraged about on the 12z GEFS, the pattern near the end of the run is literally no different than the one we're dealing with around Christmas.

View attachment 98612

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The only real difference is the cold air over western Canada has spilled southward into the western US and out into parts of the Great Plains, but ultimately it is still just as crummy of a pattern as we're in now (taken verbatim of course). If I was in the SE US, I'd want to see the Gulf of Alaska ridge move towards the West Coast, before I feel any legitimate hope of getting cold/snow.

 

[NickyBGuarantee]

The reason I say there really isn't anything to be encouraged about on the 12z GEFS, the pattern near the end of the run is literally no different than the one we're dealing with around Christmas.

View attachment 98612

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More smoothed out means in the long range and we all know long range always changes but as long as we’re in that pattern in the heart of winter there is always room for overrunning or CAD with this pattern