• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern Januworry

Myfrotho704_ said:
One thing I notice by early jan is ensembles finally have cold air in the western US and even central US and not just in NW can/PNW, all we need is a shakeup at H5 and it can maybe move east, I really like that GFS evolution tho
Click to expand...

Yeah, this may be noise, but I'm looking for anything!.....but the Aleutian ridge at the very end looked like it was creeping NE toward Alaska, and the heights near the pole were rising. This started to push to a more full CONUS trough, released the cold more into the CONUS, and pushed down the SE ridge. May be nothing, but if that's a future trend that would be great.

It could be completely gone this afternoon but I'm grasping.

1640184014767.png
 
GaWx said:
Interesting. Maybe that helped to weaken the SER on the 6Z GEFS after day 10 vs earlier runs.
Click to expand...

It looks like GEFS has found a strong pulse and wants to move. Euro still looks like a nascar race in phase 7. Maybe by the weekend we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel? Or maybe maybe tonight we'll see the oh no we suck again meme....again.

1640184682782.png

1640184736901.png
 
SnowNiner said:
It looks like GEFS has found a strong pulse and wants to move. Euro still looks like a nascar race in phase 7. Maybe by the weekend we'll see the light at the end of the tunnel? Or maybe maybe tonight we'll see the oh no we suck again meme....again.

View attachment 98802

View attachment 98803
Click to expand...
Either one of these is good for the SE in January.
 
NoSnowATL said:
Click to expand...


I've always heard the Canadian ensembles were always underrated. :p??

If we do shake up the pacific, the ridge goes up to the poles, we keep the -NAO, that would certainly be believable in mid-January IMO. IF.

That's really the most frustrating thing about this, we've got ALOT going for us right now and it would only take a few tweaks to make a great pattern for us. But we're literally stuck at the precipice. We only need small push and we'll snowball down the mountain, literally!
 
I've always been a fan of these RMM component diagrams from Dr Schreck, it gives you nice insight into what's driving the RMM MJO signal. The convective anomalies are in the western hemisphere (phase 8), but U200 (upper-level zonal winds) are highly amplified over phase 6. A large component of this U200 is forced by wave breaking from the subtropics. I.e. the subtropics & mid-latitudes still think we're in RMM phase 6, even though the convective signal is in phase 8. Hence, we're gonna be warm thru late month.

rmm_variable.40.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've always been a fan of these RMM component diagrams from Dr Schreck, it gives you nice insight into what's driving the RMM MJO signal. The convective anomalies are in the western hemisphere (phase 8), but U200 (upper-level zonal winds) are highly amplified over phase 6. A large component of this U200 is forced by wave breaking from the subtropics. I.e. the subtropics & mid-latitudes still think we're in RMM phase 6, even though the convective signal is in phase 8. Hence, we're gonna be warm thru late month.

View attachment 98805
Click to expand...
It’s always something. so frustrating
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s always something. so frustrating
Click to expand...

What I'm also saying is if we had the exact same mean RMM, but roles were reversed and U200 was leading the MJO into the W hem instead of OLR, we'd have a much different (more favorable) pattern. The RMM MJO index is nice but it really matters what the individual components are doing, esp U200, because that most strongly reflects onto the mid-latitude circulation pattern.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I've always been a fan of these RMM component diagrams from Dr Schreck, it gives you nice insight into what's driving the RMM MJO signal. The convective anomalies are in the western hemisphere (phase 8), but U200 (upper-level zonal winds) are highly amplified over phase 6. A large component of this U200 is forced by wave breaking from the subtropics. I.e. the subtropics & mid-latitudes still think we're in RMM phase 6, even though the convective signal is in phase 8. Hence, we're gonna be warm thru late month.

View attachment 98805
Click to expand...


Here's a similar breakdown but now by longitude. The mean may be in phase 7, but the Pacific + W Hem that we care about still think we're in phase 5 or 6, which usually torch the eastern US.

rmm_longitude.40.png
 
Webberweather53 said:
What I'm also saying is if we had the exact same mean RMM, but roles were reversed and U200 was leading the MJO into the W hem instead of OLR, we'd have a much different (more favorable) pattern. The RMM MJO index is nice but it really matters what the individual components are doing, esp U200, because that most strongly reflects onto the mid-latitude circulation pattern.
Click to expand...

What do we need to look for to get the U200 winds "coupled" with the convection? Any signs of that going forward?
 
SnowNiner said:
What do we need to look for to get the U200 winds "coupled" with the convection? Any signs of that going forward?
Click to expand...

Not until we can shake up the N Pacific storm track. U200 wind is more directly dependent both on convection and the extratropical circulation anomalies than other components of RMM because the extra tropics communicate to the tropics mainly through upper-level perturbations as Rossby Waves (which are strongest near the tropopause) break equatorward and move into the tropics.
 
SnowNiner said:
What do we need to look for to get the U200 winds "coupled" with the convection? Any signs of that going forward?
Click to expand...
Exactly. Why not just forecast that (U200) instead of the one folks have been following for the past several years. Obviously it means Dittly Squat. The U200 is what affects the 500mb circulation or longwave patterns downstream.
 
Fwiw, the latest available daily PNA value from NOAA ESRL as of December 20th (-466.45) is inside the top 1% (20th most -PNA of 2,264 total days) vs all December days since 1948 w/ standardized value of ~ -2.3 sigma. This is also the strongest December -PNA we've seen since 2008.

This royally sucks.

https://psl.noaa.gov/data/timeseries/daily/PNA/
 
MichaelJ said:
Looking at the indices, it is becoming apparent that the only constant across ALL models is a very strongly negative PNA and this generally does not bold well for the SE re: cold and snow. Sure something can possibly happen without it (like a robust stratospheric warming) but that is like wishing Tinkerbell was real!
Click to expand...
This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
 
Webberweather53 said:
Not until we can shake up the N Pacific storm track. U200 wind is more directly dependent both on convection and the extratropical circulation anomalies than other components of RMM because the extra tropics communicate to the tropics mainly through upper-level perturbations as Rossby Waves (which are strongest near the tropopause) break equatorward and move into the tropics.
Click to expand...

Thank you. At least we understand now why Phase 7 in January is good for cold but isn't shown to be in the models. We're not "really" in phase 7 like we had a nino that was acting like a nina a couple years back. Even when we think we're winning, we're losing.

Well, we're in fake phase 8 now and real phase 6. Hopefully in January, we'll move on to fake phase 1 and real phase 7.....which will be good in January for the SE? And maybe that gives us the shake up we need. Lol. Oh no, I've gone cross-eyed. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
 
SnowNiner said:
Thank you. At least we understand now why Phase 7 in January is good for cold but isn't shown to be in the models. We're not "really" in phase 7 like we had a nino that was acting like a nina a couple years back. Even when we think we're winning, we're losing.

Well, we're in fake phase 8 now and real phase 6. Hopefully in January, we'll move on to fake phase 1 and real phase 7.....which will be good in January for the SE? And maybe that gives us the shake up we need. Lol. Oh no, I've gone cross-eyed. ?‍♂️?‍♂️
Click to expand...

There's lots of nuances involved w/ every index and a multitude of ways to get the same MJO value, but how we get to that can matter a lot in certain cases like this. I might ask Dr Schreck if he has time series of those individual RMM components for U200, U850, & OLR.
 
NCSNOW said:
This shows how the PNA should always be at the top of TC wishlist. It dictates more than anything the winter wx opportunities down here in the SE, Not the Atlantic. Allthough obviously its nice to have it cooperate. Need the Cold 1st and foremost.
Click to expand...

Generally, I agree with that. But in this case I think we could really win without it. We just need it to not be so positively tilted and strong that it tucks all the cold snugly in the west coast. If we could just weaken it, push the ridge/heights NE and tap the polar air up there into the central states, with a good -NAO block we could easily score without a +PNA. Kinda like 09-11 I believe. The cold just needs to get east. The -NAO would do the rest IMO.
 
Canadian and Euro are several days quicker getting seasonal air back in here/ pattern change. right as we start new year. GFS has it 1/4 to 1/5 way slower. Then theres the CFS that has this New Years Eve. Canadian even paints some pink on the border counties NC/VA 12/31. That was 0z news . See how story unfolds in regards to timing at 12z. Course should be using ens instead of Ops. But oh well.

prateptype_cat.conus.png
 
Current running GFS I think is a perfect example of how the cold air can eventually bleed East. While the Jet sags, areas of overrunning will follow allowing for Winter weather to our NW to start off. Shows the pattern change off just one op run.
 
Yeah, you would think with this look (with dew points falling into the teens in NC) that good things would happen. But no....

Day 10:
aaaa1.jpg
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top