Pattern Januworry

[NickyBGuarantee]

You're probably one of the last people on this forum that should be trying to lecture someone about getting overly excited for 300+ hr model runs.

I like seeing them, I don’t put stock into them. I’m not lecturing you ? just saying it’ll probably change. If not cool but we’ve seen 240 images change completely as we close in so obviously 300+ most likely will change as well

 

[Webberweather53]

I guess the SE US will take small Ws when they can get em. Trend on the 12z EPS is nothing like the operational.

 

[Philstorm91]

I'm seeing a lot of negativity in here. How will the western SE US fare in the current trends from the EPS and GEFS?

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I guess the SE US will take small Ws when they can get em. Trend on the 12z EPS is nothing like the operational.

View attachment 98626

All I want for Christmas is - height anoms around the Aleutians

 

[Webberweather53]

All I want for Christmas is - height anoms around the Aleutians

Emphasis on small W because the GOA ridge hasn't budged in the means

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is about to go the wrong way

 

[deltadog03]

I, like everyone else, am not a fan of the pattern coming up over the SE. I do like it for the west tho......plenty of snow!!!! Keep building up that base so I can go skiing in JAN

 

[Snowfan]

At least the Pacific Coast can get some drought relief.

 

[Philstorm91]

Are we cancelling the favorable period of 1st half of January for the deep South based on one suite of model runs? Is there something I missed?

 

[Stephenb888]

Are we cancelling the favorable period of 1st half of January for the deep South based on one suite of model runs? Is there something I missed?

Yes haven’t you heard. If the runs are good it means nothing because they can flip to a bad run next..however if the runs are bad then winter is cancelled these runs can’t be flipped to good runs.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Yes haven’t you heard. If the runs are good it means nothing because they can flip to a bad run next..however if the runs are bad then winter is cancelled these runs can’t be flipped to good runs.

An operational model run of the GFS means absolutely nothing to me. Every ensemble forecast shows a horrible pattern.

 

[Webberweather53]

Hope everyone is ready for an all-you-can-eat buffet of -PNA

 

[Webberweather53]

The GFS has lost its marbles

 

[Snowfan]

The GFS has lost its marbles

View attachment 98630

It really wants to stay in Phase 7 doesn't it?

 

[Webberweather53]

It really wants to stay in Phase 7 doesn't it?

Lots of ENSO/Nina interference to blame. Even w/ -NAO and eQBO, it's harder to get the convection to move eastward into the CP when the SSTs are generally too cold to support it

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Two items keep getting reinforced on the modeling: the SER and the -PNA.

 

[Cadi40]

Everyone and their mother likes to act like they’ve been consistently forecasting January to be unfavorable however If I were to go back 3 pages the commentary would be polar opposite. Models have been horrible this year so I see no reason why I should be worrying about what their spitting out this far out. If you’re reacting negatively this post applies to you.

 

[BHS1975]

Betting on cold is like beating the house in Vegas these days.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk

 

[Mr. Golf]

Lots of ENSO/Nina interference to blame. Even w/ -NAO and eQBO, it's harder to get the convection to move eastward into the CP when the SSTs are generally too cold to support it

Do you think we get into a colder pattern at all with phase 7 in January if it happens like that or have u lost confidence?

 

[Webberweather53]

Everyone and their mother likes to act like they’ve been consistently forecasting January to be unfavorable however If I were to go back 3 pages the commentary would be polar opposite. Models have been horrible this year so I see no reason why I should be worrying about what their spitting out this far out.

This is whamby-level nonsense.