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Pattern Januworry

Will Rossman said:
Can someone post the latest PNA forecast? Also do we cancel upcoming patterns on ONE model run? I'm kind of confused here on the cliff diving by some here.
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I'm not so sure we have a good understanding of cliff diving. Cliff diving would be saying winter is over in December. Cliff diving is not having a persistently bad pattern that corresponds to what you would expect to see in a La Nina and having models and ensembles continually migrate back to that look. It's not just one bad model run.

If you're really trying to forecast the pattern, I mean honestly and objectively tying to get it right, there is absolutely nothing right now that would move you to forecast a cold or snowy period for the SE for the foreseeable future. That's not being negative. That's making a guess based on all of the data that is currently available.

Now you can speculate that changes in the stratosphere or an eventual MJO propagation or a weakening of La Nina may lead to a better pattern. But that's not a lot better than a coin flip in the face of a stubbornly persistent pattern and virtually all modeling predicting its stickiness. Pretending like that idea is based on one model run and everyone is just being negative and cliff diving is disingenuous and not really objectively looking at all the data right now.
 
Rain Cold said:
I'm not so sure we have a good understanding of cliff diving. Cliff diving would be saying winter is over in December. Cliff diving is not having a persistently bad pattern that corresponds to what you would expect to see in a La Nina and having models and ensembles continually migrate back to that look. It's not just one bad model run.

If you're really trying to forecast the pattern, I mean honestly and objectively tying to get it right, there is absolutely nothing right now that would move you to forecast a cold or snowy period for the SE for the foreseeable future. That's not being negative. That's making a guess based on all of the data that is currently available.

Now you can speculate that changes in the stratosphere or an eventual MJO propagation or a weakening of La Nina may lead to a better pattern. But that's not a lot better than a coin flip in the face of a stubbornly persistent pattern and virtually all modeling predicting its stickiness. Pretending like that idea is based on one model run and everyone is just being negative and cliff diving is disingenuous and not really objectively looking at all the data right now.
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Thanks, I appreciate your detailed explanation to get me up to speed with the mood swings today in the board. I agree there isn't much speaking for a colder January at the moment, but I would also argue that we aren't seeing a lot saying torch for the southeast US for the foreseeable future. There is no persistent consistency among the major model suites that all point to above average week after week with no cold shots in between. If the MJO continues its progression along 7 and then lower amplitude toward the COD or 8, I don't see how that would be a bad pattern for the south. I grant that this doesn't mean we get a string of below average days, but I also don't want to shelve any ideas of cool weather in early January for the south. Maybe others can help explain as well.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
-NAO/+SER combo ? Who would have thought View attachment 98651
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That's one of the ugliest things I've seen. The bad part is that's only day 10 around the new year. Thats the range models sometimes start to get a hold on the general pattern. Considering they all look like that gives it more credibility. If that's indeed the pattern we have on New Years that's not something you get out of quickly. The 1st 10 days of January would be done at that point. I'm tired kicking the can down the road every year.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
-NAO/+SER combo ? Who would have thought View attachment 98651
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Remmeber back when the - NAO helped to lock the cold air in the east? Now it just seems like the -NAO just keeps us from possible having recording breaking warmth,but not helping with giving us a sustained cold pattern. The strongly -PNA pattern is really hindering our chances of getting a favorable pattern in the SE.
 
Loganelliott99 said:
Can someone explain how a ridge pattern is sooo difficult to break but a trough breaks after one day! Jeez this sucks
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I thought this response may be appropriate for the main thread here.

La Nina + West Pacific MJO constructively interfering w/ one another. You get slower-moving, high amplitude planetary waves that are difficult to damp/wash out, which also feed back onto the MJO circulation and slow it down against the -NAO, easterly QBO, and that are attempting to push it out into the W hem (which I thought was more likely in the long-run). I had a feeling tho an unforeseen slow down like this could occur and would delay any pattern change out east (vs what models were showing at the time, which was phase 8 by Dec 20-25) and was hoping/banking on it not being this bad s.t. by the time we entered the New Year, we'd at least have some glances of a decent pattern in early-mid January. Have to admit, my confidence in that scenario is starting to decrease a little the past day or two, but I still feel that's realistically by comparison to the rest of winter (except perhaps March?), our best window overall to see cold/snow prior to February, when have to start working really hard against the grain of unfavorable Feb Nina climo on top of a warmer basic state climate and crappy initial pattern (lots of early winter -PNA) all trying to keep us warmer/drier/less snowy than normal. We can get decent patterns in Nina Februarys, but they are few and far in between.
 
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