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Pattern Januworry

Rain Cold said:
I don't think it's written in stone anywhere for us not to have a period in January where it gets cold. And I don't mean to indicate that the models are showing an unending torch pattern. They're not. They could be, and that would be bad. The cold could be out of NA completely. That would be bad. But that's not the case either. But in any event, it seems pretty unlikely that we'll slip into a favorable winter pattern for the SE within the next two weeks. Doesn't mean it for sure won't happen. But it would be unwise to consider that the most likely outcome.
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Yep as bad as this is it takes less time to get out of this since we have a very amplified pattern with plenty of cold in NA. If we had to build blocking and get cold over to this side of the world we'd be looking at weeks to do that. This could be flipped pretty quickly if we could just move that feature in the Pacific a little. But that's asking a lot at the moment.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Pretty easy to see why this gefs run is cooler, we took a baby step to this look. Unfortunately we’re probably gonna take steps back and forth, and for that solution to happen above, we need some sizable changes View attachment 98671View attachment 98672
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Just goes to show that if we move the ridge in the GOA anywhere it’s still an improvement over what we have now. A nudge towards the Aleutians could encourage the subtropical ridge to move toward the southern Rockies and desert SW
 
cd2play said:
I don’t see how the PNA is going to suddenly flip. -PNA’s tend to last all winter, once started.
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No teleconnection lasts in one position for an entire season. You will get short term periods of fluctuations. That tends to be when we score winter storms. Even a neutral PNA coupled with a -NAO would be greatly beneficial to the entire southeast. You can dump cold air southeast without dropping the hammer of cold and we get suppression.
 
RainlessSnowless & Grumpy said:
I think it was @Ollie Williams that posted the Dec 2010-Jan 2011 pattern but I can't find it now. It may have been Webber. Either way it was a west based -NAO and also had an Aleutian ridge and no ridging out west and we still were cold and had snow. I don't get it. I'm going to join @Rain Cold on the dark side and agree this is a very persistent stubborn pattern and it holds on regardless of what the indices say and only breaks when it wants to. We clearly don't understand all the forces at work that drive patterns.
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I've discussed about this in my article about a new oscillation that I'm implementing. You can find the link to my article in the whamby thread.

Misc - 2021-22 Fall/Winter Whamby Thread

Models are horrible this year . I hear that every single year lol. So they were good once ? Lol
southernwx.com southernwx.com
 
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Webberweather53 said:
Yep the 0z suite totally sucked. No end in sight for this stupid strong/persistent -PNA
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The GOA ridge really never moves to a position thats favorable on Models, which forces a strongly -PNA. What shame we are wasting a winter where we have the coldest air on the Northern Hemisphere and -NAO/AO on this. Congratulations to Seattle,WA and Portland,OR I guess.
 
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