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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah I feel like theirs been a -PNA for 3 years lol
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Yep goes to the point that we in the SE need a +PNA. I know there are exceptions but generally we need a big western ridge to push storm tracks to our south. Otherwise we just keep getting storm tracks up through the great lakes which also keep the coldest air in the west.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
The last couple of days on the GEFS weren’t too bad temp wise. Still not ideal for snow but more seasonable temps. All it takes is one week like Seattle is getting and everyone on this board will be happy
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
With the -NAO place now, we could literally move the GOA ridge just about anywhere else and have a better result here. Once the -NAO dies, if this ridge is anywhere between the Aleutians to Gulf of Alaska we get a nice SER
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
It looks like a mirage to me overall. The GOA ridge doesn’t move at all through the end of the run. We’re stuck in the same ? as we’re in now
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The 6z op GFS shows one of the synoptic pathways I mentioned yesterday wrt how we get out this crap. The Okhotsk vortex comes out into the Bering Sea and Aleutians, speeds up/extends the pacific jet, forcing the GOA to move eastward closer to the west coast. Still would not a good or great pattern by any means but it would be an improvement over what we have now.
iGRXY
Member
As bad as the H5 pattern looks on the west coast, I think the -NAO/-AO is going to cause changes like this the closer we get to the short range. Obviously nowhere near what we want for snow but it keeps you generally average or slightly below average which in this pattern is about all you can ask for. But if that -NAO starts breaking down, everyone west of the apps is going to roast and everyone east can get saved every now and again from CAD but still will get warm as well.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I’d settle for neutral or even -1 at this rate.
EPS forecast is all the way down near -6 ?
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Oh yeah absolutely. I was just happy to see near normal anomalies instead of 10+ above normal haha
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Brick Tamland
Guest
I don't think anyone knows exactly what we need to get snow here anymore.
Oh my. The 06z GFS run was pretty ugly (for those who are sick of the warmth) until the very end.
-PNA wins again!
-PNA wins again!
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Brick Tamland
Guest
The weather here today looks lovely. 40s and rain. Awesome.
Thanks for posting that. The PNA is like the NAO for WxBell in that their numbers are inflated vs NCEP. They’re forecasting -6, which is way more negative than any NCEP PNA on record. So, they clearly use a different scale. Just to compare, NCEP’s forecast has it dipping to -2 vs the WxBell’s -6. On an NCEP basis, -2 is a very strong -PNA:
OTOH, WxBell’s AO numbers seem to be consistent with NCEP.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
We're currently on pace to potentially set a record for strongest -PNA in December.
ATLwxfan
Member
Oh my. The 06z GFS run was pretty ugly (for those who are sick of the warmth) until the very end.
-PNA wins again!
Pattern persistence…it’s undeniable. Also seems there are trends carrying on from year to year. Seems the south has gotten warmer and maybe less snowy while the Pac NW is a veritable snowtopia.
Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Incorrect
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Brick Tamland
Guest
My bad. We need precip and temps near or under freezing. We just don't know what will give us the pattern to make that happen anymore.
Incorrect