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Pattern Januworry

What frustrates me the most is that we really aren't that far away from a classic or at least a better winter pattern and we have seen that pop up from time to time on the longer range gfs and some of the ensembles. A few somewhat subtle changes from the okhotsk region to nw Canada flips this from generally warm with a few cool shots to generally cold with a few warm periods. Such is the nature of living by the pacific pattern. The one thing that is a weird bonus for us father east in the region is that with the Pacific trough digging slightly farther west we allow the ridge to poke more into the central US and troughing and cool shots to get driven in on the eastern flank
 
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Now, this is an interesting change the 12Z GFS fantasy range cooked up.

gfs_z500a_namer_61.png
 
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

wkxzteq_anm.gif
 
Webberweather53 said:
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

View attachment 98717
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When is our next super Niño ? I loved the last one !
 
Webberweather53 said:
All this West Pacific MJO activity (& associated WWBs west of the dateline) are starting to have a perceptible effect on the thermocline. Notice the subsurface warm anomalies have begun to rapidly increase at depth west of the Int'l dateline. Another few weeks-month of this (as suggested by the EPS and GFS) & it seems like a good bet La Nina will die by the vernal equinox.

View attachment 98717
Click to expand...

So we can look forward to next winter without La Nina, right?
 
Poimen said:
So we can look forward to next winter without La Nina, right?
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Seems pretty likely based on the very persistent and strong West Pac MJO activity of late and response of the thermocline (& Kelvin Waves that will follow), we're not going to have La Nina this coming spring or summer.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
Thank god we’re getting the bad trends now .. eventually we will get good trends but this is putting a damper on pattern changing the 27-3rd .. another classic kicking of the can but I’d rather kick it in late December than late February lol
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Someone better find a can to kick then.
 
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