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Pattern Januworry

Cary_Snow95 said:
I think the 7 day torch about to begin is verifying pretty well..
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The weather we are seeing this week is what the modes had everyday of December supposedly feeling like and it has not even been close to a wall to wall torch for the month. Above average yes but nowhere near what they were showing. And you can see those long range torches quickly turning back much more seasonable to below average in the medium range.
 
Stephenb888 said:
Relax guys. The artic air will come in January. And it’s not gonna be just a cold shot here or there it’s gonna be legit. The pattern is going to change rapidly and catch some off guard. You will start to see it reflect in the models this coming weekend. Be patient.
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I tried to tell you guys.
 
olhausen said:
72.1 here and climbing. Im almost positive this is a record for Christmas Day. What a joke. Last Christmas my high was around 25 which was in the top 5 coldest Christmas days. I guess I’m paying for it this year.
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im been going outside to the trash putting away all old wrapping paper n boxes from presents this morning, not even wearing a shirt. lol
 
iGRXY said:
The weather we are seeing this week is what the modes had everyday of December supposedly feeling like and it has not even been close to a wall to wall torch for the month. Above average yes but nowhere near what they were showing. And you can see those long range torches quickly turning back much more seasonable to below average in the medium range.
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I’m sorry but that just isn’t true . Top 5 warmest December . Not too mention the cold days were seen . Jesus man you have been harping this since November . I got to respect it , eventually it will be right . I would like to see some maxar maps on how biased the models have been . Perhaps I’m wrong , but I’d like to see em!
 
olhausen said:
72.1 here and climbing. Im almost positive this is a record for Christmas Day. What a joke. Last Christmas my high was around 25 which was in the top 5 coldest Christmas days. I guess I’m paying for it this year.
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yep, we are definitely paying for last year

last year here= 28, white ground
this year here= 68 (thus far) / brown ground





.
 
iGRXY said:
The weather we are seeing this week is what the modes had everyday of December supposedly feeling like and it has not even been close to a wall to wall torch for the month. Above average yes but nowhere near what they were showing. And you can see those long range torches quickly turning back much more seasonable to below average in the medium range.
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DFW is running +11. That's not wall to wall torch ?
 
Lickwx said:
I’m sorry but that just isn’t true . Top 5 warmest December . Not too mention the cold days were seen . Jesus man you have been harping this since November . I got to respect it , eventually it will be right . I would like to see some maxar maps on how biased the models have been . Perhaps I’m wrong , but I’d like to see em!
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Top five warmest December’s in Charlotte and Atlanta at least. KATL with no freezes either.
 
tennessee storm said:
im been going outside to the trash putting away all old wrapping paper n boxes from presents this morning, not even wearing a shirt. lol
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Shirtless-Man-Guards-Yellowstone-Teardrop-Camper-Travel-Trailer.jpg
 
Lickwx said:
I’m sorry but that just isn’t true . Top 5 warmest December . Not too mention the cold days were seen . Jesus man you have been harping this since November . I got to respect it , eventually it will be right . I would like to see some maxar maps on how biased the models have been . Perhaps I’m wrong , but I’d like to see em!
Click to expand...

Indeed, easily in top 3 warmest Decembers for KATL and top 4 for Charlotte back to 1879!

I haven’t seen maps, but they’ve said the obvious about a cold bias of the models in the E US in week 2:

On Wednesday they said: “The trends continue a theme seen for most of the heating season thus far, with models being too cold in their longer range projections.”

——————
So, there has clearly been a cold bias in the E US in recent weeks with all of the teases of a turn to colder. Sure there have been some short periods here and there that have ended up colder than models but the times it ended up warmer easily outweighed. The clearest evidence is the top 4 warmest December in the SE.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, easily in top 3 warmest Decembers for KATL and top 4 for Charlotte back to 1879!

I haven’t seen maps, but they’ve said the obvious about a cold bias of the models in the E US in week 2:

On Wednesday they said: “The trends continue a theme seen for most of the heating season thus far, with models being too cold in their longer range projections.”

——————
So, there has clearly been a cold bias in the E US in recent weeks with all of the teases of a turn to colder. Sure there have been some short periods here and there that have ended up colder than models but the times it ended up warmer easily outweighed. The clearest evidence is the top 4 warmest December in the SE.
Click to expand...
A lot of the contribution to those extremely above average anomalies have been above average lows. At least over this way it hasn’t been a bunch of 60’s and 70’s for highs this December like models were showing when we were coming into the month.
 
GaWx said:
Indeed, easily in top 3 warmest Decembers for KATL and top 4 for Charlotte back to 1879!

I haven’t seen maps, but they’ve said the obvious about a cold bias of the models in the E US in week 2:

On Wednesday they said: “The trends continue a theme seen for most of the heating season thus far, with models being too cold in their longer range projections.”

——————
So, there has clearly been a cold bias in the E US in recent weeks with all of the teases of a turn to colder. Sure there have been some short periods here and there that have ended up colder than models but the times it ended up warmer easily outweighed. The clearest evidence is the top 4 warmest December in the SE.
Click to expand...
Thank you! It was obvious but I needed a little factual backing and second opinions ! There you have it folks , it’s not 2020-2021 . The models are back to the same old cold bias in the long range .
 
iGRXY said:
A lot of the contribution to those extremely above average anomalies have been above average lows. At least over this way it hasn’t been a bunch of 60’s and 70’s for highs this December like models were showing when we were coming into the month.
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I counted 13 days 60+ and quite a few of those were over 70 in Spartanburg . Including one day in the upper 70s. Lows have actually been closer to normal. So this analysis doesn’t hold up either . I’ll be nicer and go further north to Shelby nc. Same thing , with quite a bit of lows in the 20s.
 
It's going to be a New Years to remember if the 12z GEM is right.

Severe weather outbreak in MO/OK and Blizzard in MN/WI.
 
iGRXY said:
A lot of the contribution to those extremely above average anomalies have been above average lows. At least over this way it hasn’t been a bunch of 60’s and 70’s for highs this December like models were showing when we were coming into the month.
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Not at your location, but the official GSP station has had 12 of the first 24 days with highs in the 60s+. Also, the forecast is for 60+ the rest of the month, which would make it 19 of the 31 days with 60+ in a month. That’s about double the longterm average of only 9. Only 4 Decembers on record back to 1895 have had 19+ days with highs of 60+ at GSP: 1956, 1971, 1984, and 2015 (22, the record most days). Wouldn’t it be nice for cold lovers if this were somehow another 1984? One can always dream.
 
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iGRXY said:
A lot of the contribution to those extremely above average anomalies have been above average lows. At least over this way it hasn’t been a bunch of 60’s and 70’s for highs this December like models were showing when we were coming into the month.
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Not entirely true. The highs on average have been even more impressive across much of the South.

At least further east from here, it just hasn't felt like it because I suspect it's mostly been rainy/gloomy on those warm days.

*For ATL, the average low is only 5°F above average while the average high is 6°F above average

*For CLT, the average low is only 3°F above average while the average high is 6°F above average

*For RAH, the average low is only 3°F above average while the average high is 6°F above average

*For BHM, the average low is only 5°F above average while the average high is 8°F above average

*For BNA, the average low is only 5°F above average while the average high is 6°F above average

*For DFW, the average low is only 9°F above average while the average high is 13°F above average

*For HOU, the average low is only 10°F above average while the average high is 9°F above average
 
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CaryWx said:
So is Iowa apparently
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Iowa is north of the Mason-Dixon line, was never a part of the Confederate states, was never a Slave state, doesn't have Waffle House/Zaxby's/Bojangles and doesn't have college football teams in the SE conference.

All of the above applies (or very soon will apply) to Texas.
 
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