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Pattern Januworry

Brick Tamland said:
Even when the pattern is supposedly good based on what's happened in the past it still doesn't actually produce snow here as often as it used to. That be the facts.
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You say this every year. But we really haven't had many "good" patterns for snow in a long time. Just because you hear people on here talking about a favorable index doesn't mean that it's a good pattern. There are lots of people who do know what a good pattern is for snow. To say that we don't know what a good pattern is is just incorrect.
 
I just wonder if the longer we go without a real big winter storm, the worse it will be when we have one in regards to busted pipes, shutdowns, etc. Kind of like Texas last year.
 
Somosdel said:
Yep long winter ahead. just takes one storm to make a southern winter.
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Agree but you need some semblance of cold somewhere east of the Mississippi in order to get there. Aside from the current little blip of cold there is none to be found on the dynamic models.


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Calling off January on December 21st, 2021 is hilarious. The pattern really isn't THAT bad like the usual doom and gloom crowd want you to think it is. A terrible pattern would be no -AO, - NAO, no MJO favorable phases, and a whole lot of other things. We have a lot of good things on our side to get cold and wintry weather in the southeast. The coldest air in the northern hemisphere is actually making its way to our side of the globe for once. The MJO still looks like it will be at least be in a favorable phase for next month which can help maintain our -NAO. The Pacific is the only thing holding us back right now and as others have said, if we can just move the ridge near the Aleutians we can actually get a semblance of a good pattern. But also trusting these models in the long range whether it shows cold and snow or warm weather is foolish.
 
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ATLwxfan said:
Huffman not quite as bullish on January cold. Warning shots. Or shall we call them warming shots?

Let’s fire up the February thread.


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He shouldn't be, honestly. A few weeks ago, he was quite bearish. Then he turned bullish with everyone else. Now he's back to somewhat bearish again. One thing I have noticed over the last decade in particular, is that the art of forecasting is not advancing very rapidly. Model accuracy is advancing (allegedly), access to data is advancing, sharing and spreading of information is advancing, but forecasting really isn't so much.

Everyone looks at the same data, and 98% of the general forecasting community gets to pretty much the same idea, which is based on the same model output that everyone sees. So you get these bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations within, for example, a period where the pattern is not very good for the entire period. Why? Because the model data shifts. You get a few good runs in a row followed by a few bad runs in a row. We rely too much on this, IMO.

Understanding model biases, background conditions, pattern persistence, pattern recognition, etc. would help cut down on the bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations. But long range forecasting is hard. It's not as easy as understanding or even successfully predicting the evolution of one index. Models help, but the ubiquitous access to 24/7 data hasn't really helped improve the actual art of forecasting. This goes for both long range and short range.
 
Rain Cold said:
He shouldn't be, honestly. A few weeks ago, he was quite bearish. Then he turned bullish with everyone else. Now he's back to somewhat bearish again. One thing I have noticed over the last decade in particular, is that the art of forecasting is not advancing very rapidly. Model accuracy is advancing (allegedly), access to data is advancing, sharing and spreading of information is advancing, but forecasting really isn't so much.

Everyone looks at the same data, and 98% of the general forecasting community gets to pretty much the same idea, which is based on the same model output that everyone sees. So you get these bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations within, for example, a period where the pattern is not very good for the entire period. Why? Because the model data shifts. You get a few good runs in a row followed by a few bad runs in a row. We rely too much on this, IMO.

Understanding model biases, background conditions, pattern persistence, pattern recognition, etc. would help cut down on the bullish/bearish/bullish/bearish oscillations. But long range forecasting is hard. It's not as easy as understanding or even successfully predicting the evolution of one index. Models help, but the ubiquitous access to 24/7 data hasn't really helped improve the actual art of forecasting. This goes for both long range and short range.
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The science and understanding of meteorology is a dying thing. Modelology however is a live and well. Old school meteorologists know how to use models as just 1 part of their forecast making. Knowing models bias and flaws and knowing where they typically are accurate is a part. Just because a model isn't showing a solution doesn't mean that the ingredients aren't there and that a bias could be holding it back from accurately painting the correct picture. Pro Mets are good as they are because they take a lot of other factors into account when trying to forecast 5, 10, 30, 90 days down the road.
 
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