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Pattern Januworry

Definitely a good thing to see the GEFS to continue progressing cold shots in. Even if we warm afterwards it’s nice to see the pattern at least be progressive so we don’t get stuck in the SER and have periods of warm and cold. Those East of the Apps can still get a few more cool days in there even during the ridge from CAD so at a minimum it’s nice seeing that back on the models.
 
iGRXY said:
I actually like this look if we can drop that vortex close to the lakes and slow down the vort in the SW.
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This is kind of what I was trying to point out yesterday .. TPV slides south we get a better possibility for cold and winter weather but if it slides north this becomes severe weather … regardless we are looking at good precip which we need
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Huge fan of this trend to a cutoff ridge north of Alaska View attachment 99064
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The EPS definitely showed improvements in the Pacific without a question. However the EPS isn't the only ensemble that show us heading in the right direction. The GEFS also makes improvements as well





This is how the GEFS looks at 366 Hours out vs 360


gfs-ens_z500a_namer_61 (1).png

gfs-ens_z500a_namer_62.png
Notice how the GOA ridge have moved significantly northward towards AK and the North Pole. Also I see less of a -PNA/western Cold dump and therefore less of a SE ridge. The NAO doesn't seem too bad ether. Still have work to do,but we would be getting closer towards a true pattern change. Keeping trending like this and maybe we get a pattern that favorable for cold(even severe cold)and above average chances for winter storms in the SE US.
 
Faco Thomas said:
The EPS definitely showed improvements in the Pacific without a question. However the EPS isn't the only ensemble that show us heading in the right direction. The GEFS also makes improvements as well





This is how the GEFS looks at 366 Hours out vs 360


View attachment 99072

View attachment 99073
Notice how the GOA ridge have moved significantly northward towards AK and the North Pole. Also I see less of a -PNA/western Cold dump and therefore less of a SE ridge. The NAO doesn't seem too bad ether. Still have work to do,but we would be getting closer towards a true pattern change. Keeping trending like this and maybe we get a pattern that favorable for cold(even severe cold)and above average chances for winter storms in the SE US.
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Yep, our goal here is less amped GOA ridge and higher amped ridge north of AK (like the EPS) 2018 is a great example of the similar cutoff ridge north of AK but in 2018 we matched a perfect western ridge with the cutoff ridge north of AK, really hard to do that together, 2014 is a second one
 
Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
ac25a2f405cda43d059e03f7a5569f2e.jpg
11176bff089c2780321ba809c829e965.jpg
 
StormWatch said:
Some maybe rooting for a +PNA, but I'd much rather see a -EPO with a netrual/slight +PNA. With a stronger +PNA signal, the risk would be involved of suppression and warming (warm air advection) ahead of a storm system. With a +PNA, eastern ridging can still build and storm systems would cut, with cold air in place in the middle of the country - no good for winter storm development in the southeast. With a -EPO, netrual to slight +PNA, there wouldn't be a strong suppression (into the Gulf) and the chance would be there for southern sliders with a cold dome in place to the north with plenty of deep cold air to work with. The long range GEFS is indicating a -EPO, with very minimal ridging across the lower southeast. (The second image is an example of a -EPO pattern - for the ones that aren't familiar.)
ac25a2f405cda43d059e03f7a5569f2e.jpg
11176bff089c2780321ba809c829e965.jpg
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Not me, give me a +PNA over any other look by a mile.
 
Arcc said:
Not me, give me a +PNA over any other look by a mile.
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Yeah, that might be good for folks in TN and NC, but for those further south in places like Atlanta, Columbia, Birmingham, give me a negative PNA anyday...I'll take my chances with suppression in the gulf over hoping the boundary of a more flat cold trough makes it far enough south for wintry overrunning precip.
 
deltadog03 said:
What is interesting to me is, usually when. We are cold the west is warm and vice versa. However this year we might see where the cold tries to stay out west and then go wall to wall balls to the wall cold across the entire country.
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Don't like how the SER is still flexing. A fine line with a lot of cold rain.


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