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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Thank you Eric. Makes sense. I truly feel like a -PNA the biggest player in this patternI thought this response may be appropriate for the main thread here.
La Nina + West Pacific MJO constructively interfering w/ one another. You get slower-moving, high amplitude planetary waves that are difficult to damp/wash out, which also feed back onto the MJO circulation and slow it down against the -NAO, easterly QBO, and that are attempting to push it out into the W hem (which I thought was more likely in the long-run). I had a feeling tho an unforeseen slow down like this could occur and would delay any pattern change out east (vs what models were showing at the time, which was phase 8 by Dec 20-25) and was hoping/banking on it not being this bad s.t. by the time we entered the New Year, we'd at least have some glances of a decent pattern in early-mid January. Have to admit, my confidence in that scenario is starting to decrease a little the past day or two, but I still feel that's realistically by comparison to the rest of winter (except perhaps March?), our best window overall to see cold/snow prior to February, when have to start working really hard against the grain of unfavorable Feb Nina climo on top of a warmer basic state climate and crappy initial pattern (lots of early winter -PNA) all trying to keep us warmer/drier/less snowy than normal. We can get decent patterns in Nina Februarys, but they are few and far in between.