Last nights GFS run may not be as crazy as thought 
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
This might end well 
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Much stronger cold shot as opposed to 06z run. But it’s pushed back and not as Far East so far 
Lolllll I remember when this was at hour 384
12z GFS once again maintaining the cold shot on 1/3/21, along with a nice thumping of snow across the NW portions of the south.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Looks like it may be a quick cool shot until we see another GL cutter
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Looks like a good cold shot for me
It was just a prolonged torch and a no end in sight ridge just a couple days ago, just saying
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Weren’t all models agreeing on a one day cool shot? I may be mistaking though. The cool shot had gotten a lot cooler though
This is kinda making sense 
Chicago has 2 nice snows within 3 days. Impressive.
ATLwxfan
Member
May be multiple shots per GFS but it’s late in the run. Euro needs to come on board.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yeah. Wash rinse repeat pattern of gfs
iGRXY
Member
See what happens when you move the ridge east just a bit. I know it was looking BLEAK on the models but we all gotta know they're not going to stay with that solution for very long either whether it's cold or warmth being shown. As progressive as the pattern has been even through winter so far, the GFS progressive bias may actually be helping it in this situation. Just need the MJO to keep pushing along and we will eventually get in a good phase 7/8 by the first week of January.
tennessee storm
Member
Still not seeing much get excited. Things just keep pushing out further
Almost as if we seeing a change to something better right in front of us ?
I don’t get what’s not to like about this…
Looks like clear progress to me. Is it baby steps? absolutely. But we are going to have to work this pattern into average January temps before we even think about some Arctic airmass.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I
Yea it looks great but I just think it’s for a very short Period of time
iGRXY
Member
Problem is after that look, the GFS looks like its about to reload right back into the same crap we are dealing with now.
The models are doing what I suspected they would a few days to a week ago … they CHANGE nothing 240+ out will be the same when it comes closer to verification … plus the MJO phases just don’t correlate to a long lasting never ending SER and warmth eventually the pattern has to get shaken up as we are progressing slowly but surely to phase 8 eventually models will grab a hold of that and we see random complete different solutions than what we have been seeing .. happens all the time and I think this is just the beginning hopefully
Key is it’s reloading further out but as we close towards verification let’s see what actually happens as the cold shot showing up now for early January used to be that same crap pattern just a couple days ago
Nice 
I suppose because verbatim no snow for SE. I'm just glad to see some hints at a pattern change in the past few operational runs.
iGRXY
Member
We're getting there. The GEFS is getting much better looking under 300 hours.
GEFS is still hot garbage.
Getting some snow on the ground in the midwest would be progress, but getting the PNA closer to neutral would be monumental.
iGRXY
Member
When every model is showing a dumpster fire of a pattern, you're not going to magically flip a pattern in one run. The GEFS looks MUCH better from Hr 225 through so far. We are going from the mean average being in the mid 60's a few runs ago to them now being average to slightly below average. That is a win right now.
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Deleted member 609
Guest
Hey we are blue now.
Avalanche
Member
Maybe not a win but def moving the chains near the goalpost.
iGRXY
Member
We don't need to be worried about snow right now. We still have 2 more months of winter work with. Snow shouldn't even be in our minds right now with the looks we have been seeing the last few days on the models. Just getting temperatures back to average or slightly below average and the H5 pattern moving into a much better situation should be the goal right now. You get even a neutral PNA with a favorable MJO/-NAO/-AO (looks like we will have this part) and we will definitely be sitting on the right side of averages for getting a winter storm into some portion of the southeast.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Slightly below avg for you maybe. But still above avg for many.
olhausen
Member
Unfortunately it’s coming just in time for Christmas. My hi was 41 yesterday but will be 70 Christmas Day ???????????????????????????
Some people just wanna watch the world burn....specifically the south lol
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lol GFS with snow in San Francisco. Their snow climo is worse than basically everyone on this board
ATLwxfan
Member
Seattle might be below freezing for a week. Like an entire week. Like continuously. That’s insane.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Euro wasn’t exactly great, interesting to see what the EPS shows 
Hello there TPV 
12z EURO already got that next round of deep west coast troughing and SE ridging lock and loaded at 240hr. ?
Avalanche
Member
Bright side maybe the inner mountain west gets a good snowpack this month to help offset summer wildfire threats.