I like seeing them, I don’t put stock into them. I’m not lecturing you ? just saying it’ll probably change. If not cool but we’ve seen 240 images change completely as we close in so obviously 300+ most likely will change as well
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Pattern Januworry
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I guess the SE US will take small Ws when they can get em. Trend on the 12z EPS is nothing like the operational.
I'm seeing a lot of negativity in here. How will the western SE US fare in the current trends from the EPS and GEFS?
All I want for Christmas is - height anoms around the Aleutians
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Emphasis on small W because the GOA ridge hasn't budged in the means
This is about to go the wrong way 
I, like everyone else, am not a fan of the pattern coming up over the SE. I do like it for the west tho......plenty of snow!!!! Keep building up that base so I can go skiing in JAN
At least the Pacific Coast can get some drought relief.
Are we cancelling the favorable period of 1st half of January for the deep South based on one suite of model runs? Is there something I missed?
Stephenb888
Member
Yes haven’t you heard. If the runs are good it means nothing because they can flip to a bad run next..however if the runs are bad then winter is cancelled these runs can’t be flipped to good runs.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
An operational model run of the GFS means absolutely nothing to me. Every ensemble forecast shows a horrible pattern.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Hope everyone is ready for an all-you-can-eat buffet of -PNA
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
The GFS has lost its marbles
It really wants to stay in Phase 7 doesn't it?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Lots of ENSO/Nina interference to blame. Even w/ -NAO and eQBO, it's harder to get the convection to move eastward into the CP when the SSTs are generally too cold to support it
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Two items keep getting reinforced on the modeling: the SER and the -PNA.
Cadi40
Member
Everyone and their mother likes to act like they’ve been consistently forecasting January to be unfavorable however If I were to go back 3 pages the commentary would be polar opposite. Models have been horrible this year so I see no reason why I should be worrying about what their spitting out this far out. If you’re reacting negatively this post applies to you.
BHS1975
Member
Betting on cold is like beating the house in Vegas these days.
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Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
Mr. Golf
Member
Do you think we get into a colder pattern at all with phase 7 in January if it happens like that or have u lost confidence?
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
This is whamby-level nonsense.
Cadi40
Member
You’re correct, let’s continue in the corresponding thread.
cd2play
Member
Or like winning monopoly game with Mediterranean and Baltic.
cd2play
Member
We’re all in this together
The southeast is a large area, that can be affected by different weather patterns. Is the current trend bad news for areas like OK, TX, AR, LA, MS?
Montanasnow30
Member
Ok guys i have a lot of snow to dish around how about y’all come up here to Montana and y’all can experience the cold and snow all while enjoying some good food and beer
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
Montanasnow30
Member
You are right these temps next week are going to have me in an icebox
East or west of the mountains score in very different situations most of the time. If it’s a cold bleeding west to East, you are better off west of the mountains. If it’s a CAD situation it’s better East of the mountains. Much more too it than that as well. Right now I imagine the further west and north in the southeast you are would be better.
That’s the most realistic/best step down process I’ve seen on this forum
cd2play
Member
I hate to say it, but I think this is going to be another one of those winters that just doesn’t.
Montanasnow30
Member
What do you mean when you say best step down process if I might ask?
Get colder and colder in time
Montanasnow30
Member
Oh yeah definitely also the weather guy up here on the local news station telling people not to panic on the temps that’s showing up saying that it could very much change in coming days
iGRXY
Member
If we keep a strongly -PNA, then it's going to be hard for anybody to get any wintry weather in the Southeast. East of the mountains do have a much better shot than those west because you can get CAD at a drop of hat. the -NAO can help but we really need a trough in the Aleutians and even just a a little bit of ridging on the west coast can get us to score.
BelmontWX79
Member
Was this the weather forum equivalent to "let's take this outside"?
BHS1975
Member
I think we are going to get another massive cold dump this year with how amped the pattern has been.
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cd2play
Member
I don’t see how the PNA is going to suddenly flip. -PNA’s tend to last all winter, once started.
You are correct. It's going to the PNW. At least initially.
Can someone post the latest PNA forecast? Also do we cancel upcoming patterns on ONE model run? I'm kind of confused here on the cliff diving by some here.
Mon Bleaklies update:
1. The already known (because it is within the EPS and we already know that has warmed since Thu) late Dec portion is significantly warmer than it was on the Thu run by an average of 4 F/day in the E US as a whole
2. Jan 1-17 is colder in the E US by an average of 2.4 F/day. That was largely unknown til this run and is good news.
3. Jan 18 is unchanged. Jan 19-29 is 1.4 F warmer per day on average. My weenie spin on this is that this is the least credible portion since it is so far out and it is only slightly warmer, regardless.
1. The already known (because it is within the EPS and we already know that has warmed since Thu) late Dec portion is significantly warmer than it was on the Thu run by an average of 4 F/day in the E US as a whole
2. Jan 1-17 is colder in the E US by an average of 2.4 F/day. That was largely unknown til this run and is good news.
3. Jan 18 is unchanged. Jan 19-29 is 1.4 F warmer per day on average. My weenie spin on this is that this is the least credible portion since it is so far out and it is only slightly warmer, regardless.
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