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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

metwannabe said:
There are several eps members close enough that wouldn't take much of a NW shift at all for the coastal next week.... gotta find a bright spot somewhere
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Pretty sad that everywhere is going to be very cold for the majority of next week and the best chance of snow is on the coast. Lol
 
In addition the NCSNOW 42 day forecast of -1 starts tommorow. It will get off to a banter start as the next 7 days are forecasted by NWS to average BN to much Below. Prospects to get to seasonal climo for snowfall the remainder of the season in spite of sitting at 0.00 currently, look nill next 5 to 7 days.
 
metwannabe said:
There are several eps members close enough that wouldn't take much of a NW shift at all for the coastal next week.... gotta find a bright spot somewhere
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I'm still sitting right where I want to for that threat. A miss is no biggie but if that energy that kicks this offshore is delayed or slower and we can creep some precip back towards I95 then theres a chance for me.
 
ryan1234 said:
I have to wonder- (and I am not preaching climate change) but the loss of sea ice must have some impact on our weather. It begs the question of models and forecasts being able to decipher the difference between pattern recognition and determining LR forecast. I don't think models have good insight, yet. Hence, why we going back and forth every day. At some point somethings, gotta give, hopefully for the best. It's going to snow, it's just a matter of how much and when.
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I also believe that the loss of all the arctic Ice is having an effect!
 
Shaggy said:
I'm still sitting right where I want to for that threat. A miss is no biggie but if that energy that kicks this offshore is delayed or slower and we can creep some precip back towards I95 then theres a chance for me.
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Speaking of this threat, the 18Z EPS continues the 12Z trend of inching closer to the SE coast for the 1/21-2 potential coastal threat: don't go to sleep on this one yet

0Z EPS: 1579223365905.png

12Z EPS: 1579223419235.png

18Z EPS:
1579223474276.png
 
Just remember it doesn't take but one or 2 good events in the south for it to be a good year. I still think most of us in the south will get our snow at some point this winter. All we got is hope, the moisture looks like it's going to be there we just got to get the cold to come in at the right time. Long range does look like it is going to a little BN at least I think, at some point I think we will some much BN the key is how long and can it time up with moisture. But from now till mid march we should have some chances, maybe not a ton in deep south but even there may get a shot or 2. I have to believe the mid and upper south will score at some point.
 
The JMA (FWIW) trended west since yesterdays run.
ebc9682d190384594d80bf259479aee7.gif


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Ollie Williams said:
Wow! Phil actually has 3 members to hug.
View attachment 31245
Larry, here are your maps
View attachment 31246
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Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.

Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!

Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.

Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!

Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.
Click to expand...

I know it’s the GEPS but here are the last three runs with its precipitation field...
8de3d9ab460374060e056e8e70e7e6de.png
2bd7b29117ee50a76520ecff24b4df95.png
b2099cbe15c63155e364ff8db65a4211.png



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Interesting that any minute change could really change the short term storm like that ... skeptical but if this ended up coming that far west than we know the north west trend is alive and well
 
Also has anyone noticed that the euro tends to be not that wild in the strength of its lows and highs in its longer term range .. like the Gfs always can get some really wound up look but the euro always looks smoothed out and than trends stronger as time gets closer
 
Nick_boynton_ said:
Also has anyone noticed that the euro tends to be not that wild in the strength of its lows and highs in its longer term range .. like the Gfs always can get some really wound up look but the euro always looks smoothed out and than trends stronger as time gets closer
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Probably because it’s more realistic than the terrible GFS, lmfao
 
GaWx said:
Thanks! Not to jinx it, but I don't recall ever seeing anything like that at @pcbjr's place on ANY EPS run as long as the EPS members have been available. Keep in mind that for the 1/2018 coastal storm, models never showed SN down there since 850s were well above 0C. The threat there was never more than for some ZR.

Regarding KSAV, I'm almost 100% sure 1/2018 showed nothing like that this far in advance because the precip was progged to be all offshore. Keep in mind that until just a couple of days before it, only some ICON and NAM runs had any precip making it back onshore. The ICON took the lead in showing a surface low forming off SE FL and then moving NNE instead of the NE that other models were showing. This ICON modeled NNE move ended up verifying correctly, which brought back precip to the SE coast and the rest is history. The GFS/Euro had nothing this far in advance because all precip was well offshore. Then the Euro slowly started creeping back to the coast. The GFS remained clueless almost to the start time!

Based on this and especially if this threat continues on the Euro, I may start paying attention to the ICON. I just noticed that the 12Z Wed ICON actually had wintry precip back to the SE coast though that wasn't on later runs.
Click to expand...

I stand corrected:

http://southernwx.com/community/thr...he-arcc-xtreme-weather-special.318/post-71987
 
ForsythSnow said:
Quite a shift west for sure. I'm rooting for those light snow showers in Georgia though. If that low comes more west might be able to get that here. NW trend here it is.
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If we close off aloft you could probably get s few snow showers back your way
Downeastnc said:
So close to being something special...its not often the snow misses me 50 miles to the east lol....
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Yeah it really was. You need 50 miles I need 100 I wonder if we can accomplish either

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