• Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!

Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska

WxWatch said:
That's exactly what I was thinking! This is crazy, no one would know which one to go with, but they're both identical at 500mb. There shouldn't be a huge difference with temps if they both have identical setups. Why would you go with the colder GFS/GEFS? Hasn't it been pretty consistent showing the cold? And the EPS has been flip flopping?

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
Click to expand...
Pretty much every trend has been toward warming up, as opposed to cooling down. It probably makes more sense to lean in that direction, given the things we're seeing drive the pattern and the recent trends of the models. You were declaring winter over just the other day, when everything was looking cold. Now, you're leaning colder in the face of warmer trends. The warmer idea will likely turn out correct. But winter isn't over either.
 
Rain Cold said:
Pretty much every trend has been toward warming up, as opposed to cooling down. It probably makes more sense to lean in that direction, given the things we're seeing drive the pattern and the recent trends of the models. You were declaring winter over just the other day, when everything was looking cold. Now, you're leaning colder in the face of warmer trends. The warmer idea will likely turn out correct. But winter isn't over either.
Click to expand...
Yeah, I was declaring winter was over, but I wasn't serious about it. I was just frustrated that the patten went to crap as we went into this month. Sometimes after a long duration of a warmer pattern, the pattern can flip to a severe cold pattern. The 500mb pattern that we've been seeing during the last week doesn't look all that bad really. I'm still going with below normal temps, possibly much below during the last week.

Sent from my SM-A102U using Tapatalk
 
Anybody basing a Feb. forecast off ANY model has to ask themselves how they can come to their conclusion based on the way models have flipped flopped in as little as 5 day periods. To expcect a model to accurately forecast 30-60 days ahead is foolhardy IMO. As of this winter so far, it does appear the models showing the warmer temps have been more accurate (although not exponentially so). When I look at the IOD and see the heaviest blow up of storms in the East, I start thinking it will be mild and just the opposite when it blows up in the far West towards Africa. The latest forecasts call for the East to decrease in activity and the West to increase in the next few weeks. Does this mean everybody here will get cold and snowy? Of course not but neither does it mean we may not sneak in 1-2 events, especially in the Northernmost areas of the SE. In sum, those writing off winter or waiting for the ice age to hit are both likely wrong at this juncture.
 
the rest of this GFS run should be more useless than usual bc it dumped that big wave in the SW around 200hr and now it’s just camped out
 
Looking good at this stage on the 18z GFS. S/W sitting out to the west with the northern stream southward. We'll be watching this closely this weekend and all week next week. I bet there will be some good GEFS members this evening. Also, the timing of this possible winter storm may change, it may come in at a later time during the first week of Feb.

gfs_z500_vort_us_44.png
 
Man the fantasy runs were fun while they lasted! It doesn't even look to get cold with the exception of a couple days next week!
 
WxWatch said:
Looking good at this stage on the 18z GFS. S/W sitting out to the west with the northern stream southward. We'll be watching this closely this weekend and all week next week. I bet there will be some good GEFS members this evening. View attachment 31219
Click to expand...
Not with that look. Too much warm air. It's about as bad as the Euro was.
 
I have to wonder- (and I am not preaching climate change) but the loss of sea ice must have some impact on our weather. It begs the question of models and forecasts being able to decipher the difference between pattern recognition and determining LR forecast. I don't think models have good insight, yet. Hence, why we going back and forth every day. At some point somethings, gotta give, hopefully for the best. It's going to snow, it's just a matter of how much and when.
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm glad I've been distracted from the increasingly grim medium-long range this week at AMS. Looks like I haven't missed anything.
Click to expand...
Oh but you have. The ups and downs have been more extreme than usual. Just read the whamby. There’s really no need to even skim through the main thread tbh
 
Webberweather53 said:
I'm glad I've been distracted from the increasingly grim medium-long range this week at AMS. Looks like I haven't missed anything.
Click to expand...

Yeah, I escaped our group chat for a bit to take a peak at models... wish I haven't done that tbh :rolleyes: at this point, might as well bring on early spring and into the beach season :cool:
 
GaWx said:
@Ollie Williams or anyone else, would you please post the 12Z EPS members for the 1/21-2 coastal "threat"? I'm wondering if any members still have snow near the coast. The other day it was like 25-30% of them! TIA.
Click to expand...
I don't have individual members but apparently some still do since the mean is showing some coastal snow
5e4cb65106f5fae7fc3c57edad59614e.jpg


Sent from my SM-G950U using Tapatalk
 
Evening tracking for the Nam GFS,Euro 72 hr Cad forecast Competition issued by Delta Dog for Saturday. Looks like Raleigh NWS is hedging toward the Nams forecast. The Globals had us in the upper 40s verse the Nam mid 30s.
Saturday

DualImage.php

Chance
Rain/Freezing
Rain then
Chance Rain
High: 40 °F
 
You must log in or register to reply here.
Back
Top