What do you have at 500mb you know I'm going to ask you this daily
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Pattern January 2020 - Operation Thaw Alaska
- Thread starter KyloG
- Start date
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NoSnowATL
Member
CFS does this every winter. We will be in 5 or 6 in Feb and that’s almost a guarantee. CFS is awful and JB will use it when all other models should warm. Our only chance is Late Feb- March.
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I don't remember any extreme changes like this ever taking place on the models. I wouldn't bite on any solution until there is actual consistency at this point.
Jon
Member
This is not true and you should probably look at past CFSv2 forecasts during the winter months and compare them to actual anomalies.
It does decent and sometimes outright nails colder or warm patterns. It does much better than Euro weeklies. Just like every seasonal model, it’s not perfect and busts from time to time....but to say it’s awful is wrong imo. It’s a decent seasonal.
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Stubborn PV coupled with an active STJ and terrible MJO : Winter 2020
I’m not sure going forward in time we can even win with an active southern stream. I think Nina’s will give us our best shot at seasonal/BN +snow winter’s in the future. Although I’m not sure a Niña could have even saved us from that cold bottled up in the arctic region this winter.
I’m not sure going forward in time we can even win with an active southern stream. I think Nina’s will give us our best shot at seasonal/BN +snow winter’s in the future. Although I’m not sure a Niña could have even saved us from that cold bottled up in the arctic region this winter.
Regardless of the warmth on the Euro, I still like the look at H5. It just needs to be colder. The GEFS on a longwave scale looks almost identical, and it maintains cold air. The old thing I would change in the Euro is to raise the heights over western Canada and Alaska. Usually, with warm Euro runs, you can clearly tell what's causing the warmth, but I honestly don't see it. Even if it were small details, this looks doesn't take much to bring major cold.
In over 130 years of official records, Charlotte has never gone snowless for an entire winter, and only 6 or 7 times was there only a trace, so yes one would expect that even if we end up above normal on temps from now through the end of winter, history says Charlotte is more likely than not to have at least one snowfall
I wouldn't go with the warm Euro or EPS. There is model agreement between today's 12z GEFS and EPS at 500mb. These maps are valid at the same day and time. Not sure why the EPS is warmer than the GEFS? and the GEFS is colder....but they both have the same setup at 500mb. GEFS is warmer than it's previous run, but it still has negative 2m temp anomalies in the southeast during and after the 27th. Hmmm, something isn't right. Sometimes I really do wonder if these models miscalculate numbers.
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WxBlue
Meteorologist
Lot of zonal subtropical jet flow coming up. That's not gonna get the job done this winter, y'all.
Why would you go with the colder GFS/GEFS and not the warmer Euro/EPS?I wouldn't go with the warm Euro or EPS. There is model agreement between today's 12z GEFS and EPS at 500mb. These maps are valid at the same day and time. Not sure why the EPS is warmer than the GEFS? and the GEFS is colder....but they both have the same setup at 500mb. GEFS is warmer than it's previous run, but it still has negative 2m temp anomalies in the southeast during and after the 27th. Hmmm, something isn't right. Sometimes I really do wonder if these models miscalculate numbers.
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Yep, mild pacific air along with it
That's exactly what I was thinking! This is crazy, no one would know which one to go with, but they're both identical at 500mb. There shouldn't be a huge difference with temps if they both have identical setups. Why would you go with the colder GFS/GEFS? Hasn't it been pretty consistent showing the cold? And the EPS has been flip flopping?
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crappy pacific+enhancement of the STJ from the AAM=poop sammich
Yes GEFS has for the most part been consistently cold but its cold bias has been the worst based on verifications. So, as the cold later days of each run get closer in, they warm up considerably most of the time. It is kind of sneaky. The latter parts of each GEFS run have indeed been consistently cold, but guess what....they've been consistently way too cold like a mirage because they're not real. The Euro's cold bias hasn't been as bad as it jumps around more although it too has been averaging too cold when all of the runs are averaged out. For goodness sakes though, it would be hard to believe that this latest much warmer EPS is too cold!
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
I't evident that the models are dramatically inconsistent beyond 7 days, especially with the temps. H5 isn't consistent, but better than the temps. Maybe the computers don't know what to do with the abnormally strong STJ and is over reacting in the mid range ? Hopefully the temps will fall back down , at least some when we get into the short range?
Yea, it is hard for the +AAM/El Nino by itself to do magic without the cooperation of -AO/-NAO/more favorable MJO, etc. Just like any other index, the AAM is only one of them and doesn't necessarily take over. But from everything I've learned recently, it is better to have it for SE cold chances than to not have it (just like weak to moderate El Nino).
Cutter city until either coast decides to offer some help too. Then you remove any semblance of a PV from the hudson region and actually go with a zonal flow there and the D10 eps is about as ugly as you can get.
baroowoofr
Member
Bleaklies, for those interested:
Make of them whatever you'd like.
meh...
Make of them whatever you'd like.
meh...
Pretty much every trend has been toward warming up, as opposed to cooling down. It probably makes more sense to lean in that direction, given the things we're seeing drive the pattern and the recent trends of the models. You were declaring winter over just the other day, when everything was looking cold. Now, you're leaning colder in the face of warmer trends. The warmer idea will likely turn out correct. But winter isn't over either.
Yeah, I was declaring winter was over, but I wasn't serious about it. I was just frustrated that the patten went to crap as we went into this month. Sometimes after a long duration of a warmer pattern, the pattern can flip to a severe cold pattern. The 500mb pattern that we've been seeing during the last week doesn't look all that bad really. I'm still going with below normal temps, possibly much below during the last week.
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MichaelJ
Member
Anybody basing a Feb. forecast off ANY model has to ask themselves how they can come to their conclusion based on the way models have flipped flopped in as little as 5 day periods. To expcect a model to accurately forecast 30-60 days ahead is foolhardy IMO. As of this winter so far, it does appear the models showing the warmer temps have been more accurate (although not exponentially so). When I look at the IOD and see the heaviest blow up of storms in the East, I start thinking it will be mild and just the opposite when it blows up in the far West towards Africa. The latest forecasts call for the East to decrease in activity and the West to increase in the next few weeks. Does this mean everybody here will get cold and snowy? Of course not but neither does it mean we may not sneak in 1-2 events, especially in the Northernmost areas of the SE. In sum, those writing off winter or waiting for the ice age to hit are both likely wrong at this juncture.
@Ollie Williams or anyone else, would you please post the 12Z EPS members for the 1/21-2 coastal "threat"? I'm wondering if any members still have snow near the coast. The other day it was like 25-30% of them! TIA.
Big win for the SE here 
the rest of this GFS run should be more useless than usual bc it dumped that big wave in the SW around 200hr and now it’s just camped out
Looking good at this stage on the 18z GFS. S/W sitting out to the west with the northern stream southward. We'll be watching this closely this weekend and all week next week. I bet there will be some good GEFS members this evening. Also, the timing of this possible winter storm may change, it may come in at a later time during the first week of Feb.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 01
Guest
Man the fantasy runs were fun while they lasted! It doesn't even look to get cold with the exception of a couple days next week!
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Not with that look. Too much warm air. It's about as bad as the Euro was.
I can live with this for another 6 hours
Lots of rainy members for storm number 2, I’m tossing it already 
I have to wonder- (and I am not preaching climate change) but the loss of sea ice must have some impact on our weather. It begs the question of models and forecasts being able to decipher the difference between pattern recognition and determining LR forecast. I don't think models have good insight, yet. Hence, why we going back and forth every day. At some point somethings, gotta give, hopefully for the best. It's going to snow, it's just a matter of how much and when.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
I'm glad I've been distracted from the increasingly grim medium-long range this week at AMS. Looks like I haven't missed anything.
Oh but you have. The ups and downs have been more extreme than usual. Just read the whamby. There’s really no need to even skim through the main thread tbh
WxBlue
Meteorologist
Yeah, I escaped our group chat for a bit to take a peak at models... wish I haven't done that tbh
at this point, might as well bring on early spring and into the beach season 
I don't have individual members but apparently some still do since the mean is showing some coastal snow
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I moved those post to the GW thread.... keep that debate over there please.
There are several eps members close enough that wouldn't take much of a NW shift at all for the coastal next week.... gotta find a bright spot somewhere
NCSNOW
Member
Evening tracking for the Nam GFS,Euro 72 hr Cad forecast Competition issued by Delta Dog for Saturday. Looks like Raleigh NWS is hedging toward the Nams forecast. The Globals had us in the upper 40s verse the Nam mid 30s.
Saturday
Chance
Rain/Freezing
Rain then
Chance Rain
High: 40 °F
Saturday
Chance
Rain/Freezing
Rain then
Chance Rain
High: 40 °F