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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

superjames1992 said:
Yeah, it sure hasn’t happened this year. If anything, we realize the models have CAD overdone and hot ice storm threats turn to a light glaze at the onset followed by rain!
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Yeah, even the warm biased icon was to cold with this event days ago, but yeah CAD seems to overperform and ruin a warm day, but doesn’t ever overperform for wintry wx, lol
 
JJr said:
Agree, as far as frozen precip around here, results have been less than advertised this season. Right up to go time
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I haven’t seen a winter event overperform for me since 2015 (granted, I didn’t live here for a few years). They usually underperform or bust, and I’m just hoping they at least meet the official forecast.
 
superjames1992 said:
Yeah, I don’t know if the modeling is better with CAD these days or our winters just suck so badly. All CAD gets us now is cold rains.
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And with a -NAO, too. We are lucky to get one marginal winter storm around here each winter since 2000. Getting two storms with 2 inches or more of snow is just about impossible. It's either nothing, one big storm, or one marginal storm and maybe a couple of trace events.
 
Shadow of the Apps said:
37/19 vs forecast of 42/22 thick cloud deck.
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This is exactly why I am not buying the NAMs outlook. It's way too warm with DPs right now and generally a couple degrees too warm on temps at certain locations. You're going to get the type of precip it's spitting out when it's not initializing the dryer air in real time.
 
iGRXY said:
This is exactly why I am not buying the NAMs outlook. It's way too warm with DPs right now and generally a couple degrees too warm on temps at certain locations. You're going to get the type of precip it's spitting out when it's not initializing the dryer air in real time.
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Yeah it did initialize to high, I still don’t think it even matters much but AAA9BD5B-4DDB-41F3-8EA9-AEDFAE4EE4BF.pngBA069C6A-9BDE-4B47-B095-8DB4551CF064.png
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
I used to be excited about wintertime CAD setups lol, nowadays they suck, when was the last deep CAD ? 2016 ?
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Yea if this was a true Cad we would have a big High parked in the Hudson Bay area with 10-15mph NE winds into the upstate. Havent seen that in a minute.
Btw 40/29..suckfest
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nowadays it’s depression air damming (DAD), you want something but DAD just says no warmth but no wintry wx
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Yeah, I think it's time for me to take a break from looking at models. It's too painful to watch these "fantasy storms" show up 5-6 days before only for them to go poof within the 2-3 day period. And of course, the MA and NE score once again. Did modeling really become that $hitty or are we just, well, $hitty? I miss the days when those storms would actually show back up.
 
ryan1234 said:
Yeah, I think it's time for me to take a break from looking at models. It's too painful to watch these "fantasy storms" show up 5-6 days before only for them to go poof within the 2-3 day period. And of course, the MA and NE score once again. Did modeling really become that $hitty or are we just, well, $hitty?
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Eh it’s ice man, I personally don’t mind it but my power goes out easily, if it was snow/sleet I’d be upset but this is just ice,
 
Man the 12z Nam is really putting down some back end snow for west of the apps. Places like Gatlinburg and Pigeon Forge should do very good with some heavy snow squalls
 
nam3km_ref_frzn_seus_43.png
 
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