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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Hey guys! Long time forum reader/model watcher here. I typically don’t post because I don’t have the knowledge many of you do. Thanks for all the model analysis! I’m curious to see how this one unfolds. It appears I’m in the jackpot zone for zr according to most short range guidance. I’d like to think I could get a meaningful front end thump of snow and sleet before the transition to zr but I don’t think it looks very likely at this point. The globals and some short range models take me slightly above freezing at the tail end of the event. As much as I like having power the wennie in me hopes it can stay below freezing for the whole duration. Good luck to you guys to my north expecting more snow than zr!
 
Much like other "storms" this year, looks like the temps are going to be higher that the models originally showed leading to mostly rain in the Triad as we approach go time. Northern Mountains/foothills should do okay with this while the big winners will be our friends to the north in Va.
 
MichaelJ said:
Much like other "storms" this year, looks like the temps are going to be higher that the models originally showed leading to mostly rain in the Triad as we approach go time. Northern Mountains/foothills should do okay with this while the big winners will be our friends to the north in Va.
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Temps in the Triad and Piedmont are exactly where the models had them, low 40's. The triad and Piedmont are absolutely in the perfect spot for ice out of this system.
 
The 18Z HRRR soundings (for my area) have a 33/28 spread at the outset of precipitation around 4am, which could be sleet. Temps then fall to 32 and remain there through about 10 am. This only tells us what we already knew: the difference between ice and plain rain is razor thin.
 
The RAP is about the only model left (we'll see about the NAMs in a minute) that still likes the front end band tonight:

RAPMA_prec_kuchsnow12_018.png
 
NAM starting up. Already initialized too warm and too high on the DPs and tries to raise them to the mid 20's by 4 pm.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Things just don’t get colder towards veri no more tbh, seems like with each passing CAD, it’s “ends up getting stronger/colder” slowly becomes something of the past
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Yeah, it sure hasn’t happened this year. If anything, we realize the models have CAD overdone!!

Looks like the fantasy finger is a mirage, as I feared yesterday! The winter of misery continues! May Fab Feb save us, but I gotta say it’s not looking good!!
 
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