Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

[Myfrotho704_]

Worth nothing, the CAMs that have that front end finger band, have more way more ZR, so no surprise the NAM had more ZR with a stronger finger band to cool things off

 

[Avalanche]

Maybe we can get something in Chatham, but per models, we are too far east.

 

[olhausen]

Dag Namit I’ve been Naaaaaaaaamed. I live right in the center of that blue circle.

 

[smast16]

The ticket to this whole system is dew points, and why are the HRRR's so high compared to the Nam 3k??

 

[Deleted member 1449]

The ticket to this whole system is dew points, and why are the HRRR's so high compared to the Nam 3k??

The HRRR is just not reliable in the LR (that's my opinion, but I believe it's true.).

 

[EV/WS]

Blacksburg pulled the trigger on a Watch.. Warning shot ??

 

[EV/WS]

As well as GSP

 

[Avalanche]

Is this one of those scenarios where early and heavy onset is needed?

 

[Deleted member 1449]

There must not have been much collaboration with RAH. Their discussion gave no hint of any serious ice, even in the Triad.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

The ticket to this whole system is dew points, and why are the HRRR's so high compared to the Nam 3k??

Hrrr loves to have dewpoints to high in these sort of air masses, for example the Christmas system, it’s just terrible with CADs and has always been until it’s super close, it seems to be trigger happy about cold around 850mb/low levels but lackluster with sfc cold

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Just looking at @Webberweather53 storm maps. The January 29-30 2005 storm accumulations look kind of similar to what I could see happen. At least for NC.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Hrrr loves to have dewpoints to high in these sort of air masses, for example the Christmas system, it’s just terrible with CADs and has always been until it’s super close, it seems to be trigger happy about cold around 850mb/low levels but lackluster with sfc cold

Here’s a top notch example of this lol

 

[Stephenb888]

Is this something us in Anderson, SC are gonna have to watch? or is it likely not gonna be this far down.

NAM definitely pushed the ICE down further south in the upstate. was a colder push as well. Precip starts moving in faster than the models anticipate with those low Dew Points and it's going to be a sneaky lights out type event for a lot of folks.

 

[iGRXY]

RGEM holding the CAD longer again as well.

 

[iGRXY]

Is this something us in Anderson, SC are gonna have to watch? or is it likely not gonna be this far down.

Ehhhhh. I feel more comfortable saying Greenville, Spartanburg, Gaffney, Pickens going north.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I do not like the look of this. The 3k nam has freezing drizzle all night sunday basically for iredell county and north View attachment 69119

Deep backside CAA at the SFC with freezing drizzle could be a big issue as well given the shallow moist layers on soundings

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Here was the FRAM 3km btw

 

[FallsLake]

There must not have been much collaboration with RAH. Their discussion gave no hint of any serious ice, even in the Triad.

They're LR (which includes Sunday) hasn't updated yet from this morning.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Here was the FRAM 3km btw

And freezing drizzle was still going ??

 

[Deleted member 1449]

They're LR (which includes Sunday) hasn't updated yet from this morning.

Good catch! I saw the first two headings with a "pm" and totally missed that one!