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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

The more I look at this and get outside my own backyard bias, if this comes in early and locks in the CAD, then major parts of Metro Charlotte could be in for a world of hurt. You may start and STAY ZR with no sleet to save you while the Triad proper may get a break with some of the precip being IP and even a little snow. Regardless this could literally be a "lights out storm" for a lot of the Western and Central part of the state. I think Raleigh will be pretty safe at this time but keep abreast of the local forecasts
 
Clem282340 said:
This looks like a hwy 11 and north storm to me
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Ice is definitely getting down to the 85 corridor already and these short range models are trending colder with each run. Those low DPs out ahead of the storm is what has me worried about this overperforming. But the CAMS, RGEM, and now both NAMS have ice down to the 85 corridor in greenville, spartanburg, and cherokee counties.
 
MichaelJ said:
The more I look at this and get outside my own backyard bias, if this comes in early and locks in the CAD, then major parts of Metro Charlotte could be in for a world of hurt. You may start and STAY ZR with no sleet to save you while the Triad proper may get a break with some of the precip being IP and even a little snow. Regardless this could literally be a "lights out storm" for a lot of the Western and Central part of the state. I think Raleigh will be pretty safe at this time but keep abreast of the local forecasts
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If WAA driven precip arrives earlier then forecasted, then dang, that always seems to happen as well
 
MichaelJ said:
The more I look at this and get outside my own backyard bias, if this comes in early and locks in the CAD, then major parts of Metro Charlotte could be in for a world of hurt. You may start and STAY ZR with no sleet to save you while the Triad proper may get a break with some of the precip being IP and even a little snow. Regardless this could literally be a "lights out storm" for a lot of the Western and Central part of the state. I think Raleigh will be pretty safe at this time but keep abreast of the local forecasts
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Yeah, I don't understand why Brad is always so sure of himself. He's a great met, but does this all the time. Is right a lot of the time? Yes. But for gods sakes, at least say it's something to watch.
 
Frosty approves of this forecast! But He knows he was burned last he was under a WSW they was calling for 4-8 inches ended up with a dusting. So he will believe it when he sees it................................................

SATURDAY NIGHT
A chance of snow and rain in the evening, then snow with a chance of freezing rain after midnight. Snow may be heavy at times after midnight. Snow accumulation of 1 to 3 inches. Ice accumulation around a trace. Not as cool with lows around 30. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

SUNDAY
Freezing rain, sleet and snow in the morning, then a chance of rain, freezing rain and sleet likely in the afternoon. Snow may be heavy at times in the morning. Additional moderate snow accumulation. Highs in the mid 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation near 100 percent.

SUNDAY NIGHT
Cloudy with a chance of rain and sleet. A chance of freezing rain and snow showers after midnight. Little or no additional snow accumulation. Lows in the lower 30s. Light and variable winds. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

MONDAY
A chance of snow in the morning. Cloudy with a chance of rain. Highs in the lower 40s. Chance of precipitation 40 percent.

MONDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy. A chance of snow showers and rain in the evening. Lows in the upper 20s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent.

TUESDAY
 
iGRXY said:
Ice is definitely getting down to the 85 corridor already and these short range models are trending colder with each run. Those low DPs out ahead of the storm is what has me worried about this overperforming. But the CAMS, RGEM, and now both NAMS have ice down to the 85 corridor in greenville, spartanburg, and cherokee counties.
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Do you think it will make it down to southern parks of Pickens county
 
Just a thought but is it possible the Nams dry bias is playing into the larger ice totals a bit? I know these models always show icing in lighter precip.
 
Clem282340 said:
Do you think it will make it down to southern parks of Pickens county
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The valley along pickens and oconee counties is always warmer than other parts of the upstate. Always heard it's due to the amount of Nuclear reactors on the lakes that warms the surrounding areas. Probably east of highway 178 in pickens towards GSP and Gaffney stand the best chance of seeing ZR at this time but if models continue to trend colder and colder like they have been and we get In-situ CAD from early precip into those low DPs then a lot of things are on the table here.
 
MichaelJ said:
I will say that Brad could be right and his reasoning is sound but it is certainly not a guarantee
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He is right all around. But there can still be warning criteria accrual in many spots (especially North and West of CLT.)
 
Nomanslandva said:
I looked at soundings up her from the NAM 3K. While things are trending colder at the surface down there, the warm nose becomes critical earlier here. But while it goes to mix earlier, it may not be as warm as prior runs so a better chance of sleet.
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Imo if I was up there, I don’t really want to be a party pooper, but I’d bet with much less snow/more ZR/IP, 1-3 and maybe 4 in some spots around Roanoke, but the NAMs amount of WAA is a killer, that front end WAA band could do some work tho with some snow
 
iGRXY said:
The valley along pickens and oconee counties is always warmer than other parts of the upstate. Always heard it's due to the amount of Nuclear reactors on the lakes that warms the surrounding areas. Probably east of highway 178 in pickens towards GSP and Gaffney stand the best chance of seeing ZR at this time but if models continue to trend colder and colder like they have been and we get In-situ CAD from early precip into those low DPs then a lot of things are on the table here.
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I live Right at hwy 178 in liberty sc you think this area might see something
 
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