One thing that I don’t think is being taken into account by some forecasters as much as it should is just how dry an airmass that there is in place ahead of this. The NAM is holding firm that dewpoints tomorrow night will be down in the teens across most of western and central NC and some some single digits still showing up in VA. We’ve really not had that type of airmass in place ahead of a potential storm in a long time
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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Won’t latent heat release eventually warm areas receiving ZR to just above freezing in an in-situ CAD situation? Granted, that may take a while, but it is self-limiting to some degree. I think RAH is being a little conservative in their forecast at this point, though. Zilch ZR here and 0.01-0.1” at GSO seem a bit low to me. 0.01-0.1” here and 0.1-0.25” for GSO is more like it, IMHO.
Yes, over time, without a continued source (high over NE US) of cold, dry air, latent heat release from freezing rain will push temps above the freezing level. IF, the in-situ damming is strong enough, it may not be able to overcome these cold temps until the precip is gone, esp in the Triad an points N and W.
BHS1975
Member
In-situ icing is hard to forecast and a lot of times it's a nowcasting situation with where the freezing line sets up. I've seen it split Durham county before with .25 inches of ice to the north and west and nothing to the east.
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I'm still not liking the look of the freezing rain potential for the Triad....I have my fingers crossed for it to be cold enough for sleet before the freezing rain takes over. I've lost power in these situations before and I don't want to again.
I don't think this is going to be big ice storm, like some in the past, but I think it will be big enough to cause some issues
I don't think this is going to be big ice storm, like some in the past, but I think it will be big enough to cause some issues
Also you can have something happen like President’s Day 2015 and a meso-high forms and helps to lock in the sub-freezing temps longer.
JHS
Member
Yeah Anderson may very well, if not likely, be on the outside looking in but I'd be willing to bet that the ice would get down to me in Union county. Maybe not the city itself though. Sort of like Jan 1999 when Jonesville ended up less than 5 miles inside the the ice. Lost power for 30 hours with it here.
NCHighCountryWX
Member
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L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Brad P. Impact map. He's not expecting much of anything anywhere. 
I respect brad p and his predictions but this looks like the areas that the GFS impacts, hope he’s not relying on it this close to go time.
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
That's what I was telling myself. It looks like a mirror image of the gfs of rapid refresh
We’ll see in a few hours if the NAM holds on, imo I think it backs off but we’ll see
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
In my 4 years here, it seems like these in-situ CADs hold on longer than modeled/forecast. But I could be wrong. It just always seems to overperform to a degree (no pun intended).
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Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
How does the rapid refresh and hrrr do in these kind of set ups? Both are kind of similar to what brad p thinks
Trash.
Nomanslandva
Member
I would not be surprised if that front end band is the only pure snow we see to be honest! Just how things normally work with a low way to the NW in OH/IN. Hoping not but that is sort of what I expect too.
if the hrrr is gonna do this with our CAD, then it could be unusable for this event lol, I mean how does it bust this badly with DPs 5 hours ahead. 
Dang for the short term, this 18z euro run is looking much colder 
Oh ---- 