Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

[Deleted member 1449]

if the hrrr is gonna do this with our CAD, then it could be unusable for this event lol, I mean how does it bust this badly with DPs 5 hours ahead. View attachment 69153

Yeah it has some problems in this area. It was about 10 degrees (DP) too warm for 0Z tonight from it's 18Z run for my area, even though it initialized well.

 

[Ethan80963]

So far my temp is 37 falling 6 degrees below TWC and 2 degrees below GSP. Dew point is 19. Forecast low is 26 we’ll see.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This is not good..... is the NAM on to something ?

 

[Brick Tamland]

Looks like we could be seeing the models come further south with the wintery precip just like the previous storm.

 

[KyloG]

This is not good..... is the NAM on to something ? View attachment 69157

Yeah, that’s bad unless you like ice. Let’s see if 0z backs it up.

 

[Brick Tamland]

Brad P. Impact map. He's not expecting much of anything anywhere. View attachment 69148

He never does.

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

Oh Cooler than the other side of the pillow View attachment 69156

Does it not show the snow showers on Monday anymore?

 

[SWVAwxfan]

NWS is saying up to 6 inches of snow plus a glaze of ice for my area.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Does it not show the snow showers on Monday anymore?

 

[Logan Is An Idiot 02]

View attachment 69158View attachment 69159View attachment 69160

Thanks!

 

[packfan98]

This is not good..... is the NAM on to something ? View attachment 69157

I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?

 

[LukeBarrette]

NWS is saying up to 6 inches of snow plus a glaze of ice for my area.

6-10 on WDBJ7, 4-7 on Wsls for Roanoke.

 

[tramadoc]

Even looks like I'll be dealing with light snow Sunday.

 

[NCSNOW]

Sperry Piltz Ice Accumulation Index

Ice Storm Potential Damage Index

www.usawx.com

View attachment 69147

I've been in that black zone before. December 2002. Never forget it. Killed power to 100% of the county. Sat in dark,cold for 8 days. Even the hospital was out. You couldnt get gas for generators. Would stand on deck and listen to booms as trees snapped,crashed in the woods. Up their in my top 4 [March 1993 mtns,Crusher 2000, 17 inch ULL Feb 2004].

 

[Myfrotho704_]

I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?

Looked like a little bit of the euro showing slightly stronger CAD and catching on tbh

 

[Myfrotho704_]

Our energy is now on land, if we see any trends, Its likely because of that as well

 

[NCSNOW]

I having mixed emotions. I don’t want a ice storm. That was a pretty dramatic shift. Was there a change with setup (high pressure, track of the low), or is the Euro just catching onto the depth of the CAD?

I havent looked. But im willing to bet its just catching on as game time nears. Globals really struggle with cad. Per webb,past history. Ill get all in on soundings tomorrow. My thoughts are we hit +.25 frzng rn easy right now. Thats winter storm warn criteria. But im like nws. You really have to wait till game time to nowcast the cads. To have a chance to nail down exact details.

 

[JHS]

I've been in that black zone before. December 2002. Never forget it. Killed power to 100% of the county. Sat in dark,cold for 8 days. Even the hospital was out. You couldnt get gas for generators. Would stand on deck and listen to booms as trees snapped,crashed in the woods. Up their in my top 4 [March 1993 mtns,Crusher 2000, 17 inch ULL Feb 2004].

Dec 2002 was rough but somehow we only spent 2.5 days without power. Lost it for 4 with the crusher.

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Our energy is now on land, if we see any trends, Its likely because of that as well View attachment 69165

Our storm has already destroyed a huge chunk of California Hwy 1 !

 

[JHS]

The GSP metro is certainly overdue. The last really serious ice storm in this area was in Dec 2005. Most of western NC has had major ice since that time.