NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,909
- Reaction score
- 19,859
Triad doesnt exist to RAH NWS, until events unfold and spotters call in.
-
Hello, please take a minute to check out our awesome content, contributed by the wonderful members of our community. We hope you'll add your own thoughts and opinions by making a free account!
Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
18Z FRAM from RGEM is like .80 or something for GSO. Obviously that output is too aggressive but an ice storm is looking more likely for sure.
NCSNOW
Member
- Joined
- Dec 2, 2016
- Messages
- 9,909
- Reaction score
- 19,859
Dang, RDPS colder still and more W/E oriented, I still don't expect much at all here but that kind of got my attention..... haven't look at soundings though.
Ooof much colder.....
East-west CAD events seem a little odd to me. But I guess the RGEM knows best. Either way, still trending east and south with frozen, to an extent, anyway.
MichaelJ
Member
T
This is just U-G-L-Y
This is just U-G-L-Y
I bet it's going to be a good read, my guess they are going with colder side of things and stronger wedge..... just guessing because they have chance snow Sat night and then chance snow Sun morning changing to rain in my neck of the woods. Really wasn't expecting that
Yeah I agree but there is the rare occasion but I'd lean more towards the usual NE/SW orientation cutting Wake right down the middle
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Hence why I only mentioned the FRAM!
Ahem.... lol
As is typical of cold air damming events,
our official forecast is weighted most heavily toward colder and
more stable NAM and GEM solutions, which depict that slower than
previously forecast retreat of the wet bulb freezing line; and our
temperature forecast has been adjusted downward accordingly.
Things you don’t like to see 
also note howthe NAM trending towards a wetter WAA band already kickstarts the CAD 
also note howthe NAM trending towards a wetter WAA band already kickstarts the CAD
MichaelJ
Member
If you go by past histroy, most if not all models tend to scour the wedge out too quickly. If that happens here, (meaning it DOESN'T change to plain rain)nobody in Yadkin, Wilkes, Forsyth, Guilford, Randolph and Davidson counties will have power likely for several days. 
I was just about to say, I have this uneasy feeling that this could trend a lot uglier for CLT. It's hard to bed against the NAM, it's beginning to get into its timeframe where it does really well. Not sure if that would equal Ice Storm Warning Criteria, but at the very least an advisory. If things keep trending the Triad may have more IP than ZR. And CLT could have more of an ice issue. Trends aren't great if you like power.
Imo this has more potential for CLT then any system we’ve had in a while, just because the DPs are so low prior, of course we could trend back to a warmer solution but it’s not good seeing the NAM get colder as it’s entering its best range regardless of H5, lol
Yeah, not great. I mean I love wintry weather but ZR while it's beautiful and makes for some great pictures it can wreak havoc.
Clem282340
Member
This looks like a hwy 11 and north storm to me
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Even the GFS came in more wintry at the outset at least. Probably because of the faster onset of precip.
YetAnotherRDUGuy
Member
I’m a little surprised RAH didn’t issue a Watch for at least Forsyth, and maybe even Guilford or Davidson based on what RNK issued for counties just N of them. Then again, GSP didn’t issue Watches for Rowan or Davie on the other side either.
D