Some baccside snow Band is becoming legitimately possible per the EPS/control 
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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
PA might lose another one ?
That's what I like
Cad Wedge NC
Member
Yeah, we want PA to be cold and dry....
Continue to build that ridge behind and NC could see a solid band on the very end
@Myfrotho704_ The GFS had that precip band out in front of the system why did the CAD dome erode so fast?
GFS isn't very good with CAD. It runs the primary too far north, as it doesn't see the cold dome well. Scours out the wedge with strong SW winds.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Looking great so far for the NRV. Could be an extended event too.
Thor
Member
Already booked up there between Boone and Blowing Rock. But honestly for much of northern NC there's been some decent trends today. Northern MA getting nervous.
I want to bet the nam looks like crap again in just a bit
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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I hear Dubuque is nice
SWVAwxfan
Member
I heard Columbia SC is nice. Lolol.....
Yep, slightly less confluence on the NAM so far, we wanted more of that not less, let’s see what it does
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Before I agree to the bet I need to know how you define "crap" in this case?
Less wintry precip, less of a signal for a FGEN band, although ice is crap itself lol
SWVAwxfan
Member
A full blown Taco Bell blowout.
Side of chipotle
this nam run is warmer in every layer so far, we need that trough to press in from the NE if we wanna get more IP/less ZR/cold rain
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Carolina weather authority
Imagine using the OP GFS for a cold air damming setup and pushing it out in the public
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I mean I think the GFS may be the most accurate but that's why I'm not a meteorologist and don't make forecasts and present them to the public lol
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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If you like 0 snow , sand gnats, unbearably Miami like humidity and cocks, I highly recommend it!
long rang HRRR for the win
Hrrr is good at picking up those events
The reason it’s probably not the most accurate in this case is simply because of the CAD. The GFS is historically horrible with it (look at this past Tuesday as one of many examples). Now I’m not saying that the CAD regions are definitely getting a big ice storm... it could turn out to be a ice to rain scenario with very little impact.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
You are being too harsh on Columbia. Im sure its a lovely place.
hope this works? This was the band of snow that produced thundersnow last night IMB
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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It’s like the devils taint. Can’t think of anything good about it
GFS is obviously terrible with CADs, even with a warmer run it’s still icy 
Our low back west was further north = warmer
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Yup that reminds me a lot of the December storm for bc. Onto February
Oh no lol, these dewpoints are way lower then that December event 
SWVAwxfan
Member
Don't forget Phoenix like Temps, sand spurs and flying cockroaches. Lol
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
3K NAM sounding for 12Z Sunday morning is 32/21 for my area. Lights out.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I was just talking about the ice accumulations. Pretty much I-40 north
Can’t really make that bold of a statement yet tbh, we’re have a pretty stout dry/cold airmass in place prior even further south
I feel more likely than not that the foothills,and NW Piedmont get a significant icing out of this. Further south into CLT metro and SC upstate, it’s simply going to be a matter of if the precip arrives early enough to start locking in the wedge stronger. I’ve certainly seen plenty of times that not get determined until literally right up till the beginning of the event. I can remember back in early January 1995, there was an ice storm for the CLT area that was not anticipated by forecasters. Even though the day was starting in the mid 20s, GSP did not forecast precip starting until early evening when temps would be in the low 40s. Instead the precip started about 7 hours early, the wedge locked in and temps fell back into the upper 20s from evaporational cooling after briefly getting to the mid 30s. The metro area ended up getting a significant glazing from nearly 8hrs of ZR. I remember this so well because the same storm was responsible for a huge severe weather outbreak for the eastern part of the state.