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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

3K has DP in the upper teens in the upstate at 60 and temps in the mid 30's. I really think with how cold the air is that will be in place we will likely see it continue to trend colder.
 
yuck!
zr_acc.us_state_nc_va.png
 
Nam 3 run trend, don’t think This continues but it’s getting into a range wheres it really good with cold air damming 550731D9-BCA8-40B6-943A-A0CD84F20954.gif75B8CBBD-0BF8-465C-BF0F-764FC162BEEB.gif
 
Loganelliott99 said:
I'm taking gfs all day. I know people won't like me for that but it's been the most consistent model imo
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It’s definitely a model to watch but the GFS is trash with cold air damming, I don’t know why it was so stout with that December system tho, but in the past the GFS sucks with CAD
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Nam 3 run trend, don’t think This continues but it’s getting into a range wheres it really good with cold air damming View attachment 68885View attachment 68886
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Ehhh we have some really dry air in place ahead of this one and snow pack to the north. I wouldn't write off a southern push in the coming runs just yet. We all know how CAD generally trends and how much of a ----- it is to get out of here.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
It’s definitely a model to watch but the GFS is trash with cold air damming, I don’t know why it was so stout with that December system tho, but in the past the GFS sucks with CAD
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Yeah just imo the gfs has been the best as of late. At least with the location of storms and how consistent it's been. We shall see
 
Poimen said:
I'm guessing there will be a lot of virga at least. Lot's of dry air to overcome. It would be nice to get a front end snow before the ice.
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Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly what I was thinking, imo WAA/700mb FGEN ramming into confluence like that argues for forcing for ascent >> some sort of band of precipitation
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Indeed that dry layer is really stout below 700 and the moist layer is awfully thin. Still need some help

Brick Tamland said:
I have a feeling it's going to keep trending better as we get closer just like things did with today's storm.
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I think the bigger concern and "better" trend is a weaker parent to the north less overwhelming south to southeast flow and more ice.
 
SD said:
Indeed that dry layer is really stout below 700 and the moist layer is awfully thin. Still need some help


I think the bigger concern and "better" trend is a weaker parent to the north less overwhelming south to southeast flow and more ice.
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Lol I dunno if we want to trend stronger with low level cold/sfc temps now looking at it, 925s are baking for areas that are seeing ice, this wouldn’t even be sleet, just ZR, oof A267F9A0-EF83-4C74-B200-D2E14E462AA8.png
 
SD said:
Indeed that dry layer is really stout below 700 and the moist layer is awfully thin. Still need some help


I think the bigger concern and "better" trend is a weaker parent to the north less overwhelming south to southeast flow and more ice.
Click to expand...

Guess it all depends on how you look at what is better with this one. I meant in terms of having a bigger storm.
 
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