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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Remember that precip will likely come a few hours earlier like it always does and most of us will likely be pretty below freezing at that time
 
A weird difference between the NAM and the RGEM is that when the heaviest precip starts, NAM and RGEM are pretty similar but the REGEM has CLT dropping to below freezing while the NAM has temps rise a bit.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Hmmm, if we can overcome those dry Low levels and shift our S/W a tad bit further south, that would help quite a bit more View attachment 68900View attachment 68901View attachment 68902
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oh and btw, if we do indeed break out some precipitation early on, that would already develop and get the CAD dome going which mean less scouring of CAD from the Sly flow in the low levels Early on in the game. a 50-100 mile shift south with a tick more confluence makes a big difference here, but if we go the other way we have December’s setup all over again
 
If and that’s a big if, the RGEM was correct on the temps, those totals it’s spitting out would likely be in the range of there. You get temps in the mid 20’s and pretty much anything that falls will accumulate or accrual.
 
SimeonNC said:
A weird difference between the NAM and the RGEM is that when the heaviest precip starts, NAM and RGEM are pretty similar but the REGEM has CLT dropping to below freezing while the NAM has temps rise a bit.
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RGEM has a cold bias. Nam over rgem any day of the week
 
iGRXY said:
If and that’s a big if, the RGEM was correct on the temps, those totals it’s spitting out would likely be in the range of there. You get temps in the mid 20’s and pretty much anything that falls will accumulate or accrual.
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The RGEM won't even be close. It had like an inch of ice for the system in December and it was 34 and rain
 
Loganelliott99 said:
The RGEM won't even be close. It had like an inch of ice for the system in December and it was 34 and rain
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It’s very close to the NAM btw, although I think it’s to cold at 925, but these runs start becoming really important tomorrow, I don’t buy this much ice this far south yet A700BE98-1DB0-41DC-A36D-55AA1A5C528C.png341C14FD-3098-448F-A053-630CA08C6DDC.jpeg
 
iGRXY said:
Remember that precip will likely come a few hours earlier like it always does and most of us will likely be pretty below freezing at that time
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To go off this. If we do get precip to move in faster by 3 hours then you’re definitely looking the CAD dome in and it’s going to be hell trying to erode it. Seen too many times even short range modes eroding CAD way way too fast.
 
One thing just to point out, it's not always accurate to say this or that model has a warm or cold bias. Much of that is situational. It may be that the "cold biased" Rgem is actually closer to reality than the other models, for example.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Ideally for a big CAD region NC winter storm/ice storm you want that confluence in the NE around the red line and Shortwave around that X View attachment 68920
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One thing to note is the last storm trended further and further south. The last 3 runs of the NAM have also trended further and further south with the vort so it’ll be interesting to see if we continue that with the next run.
 
iGRXY said:
One thing to note is the last storm trended further and further south. The last 3 runs of the NAM have also trended further and further south with the vort so it’ll be interesting to see if we continue that with the next run.
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Yes, like I said that has been the trend this week.
 
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