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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

Myfrotho704_ said:
Lol I dunno if we want to trend stronger with low level cold/sfc temps now looking at it, 925s are baking for areas that are seeing ice, this wouldn’t even be sleet, just ZR, oof View attachment 68890
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Yeah this is why you would really want to weaken the parent if you could. Either way I'm getting some vibes of the last ice storm that kind of pooped out
 
ICON was also 3-4 degrees colder for the CAD areas.
 
mrdaddyman said:
Yeah, I love snow but I tell you, sleet has the staying power that snow just doesn't have.
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I remember we had 6+ inches of sleet in a storm maybe 6-7 years ago. We had like a close to 2 foot drift on the back porch where it slid down the roof and accumulated. I thought that thing was going to last until summer. It survived weeks and weeks.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
Exactly what I was thinking, imo WAA/700mb FGEN ramming into confluence like that argues for forcing for ascent >> some sort of band of precipitation
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AKA , the finger! Usually 12 hours ahead of schedule
 
Honestly the RGEM looks pretty good in terms of where the frozen precip will be, assuming trends continue. The amounts are probably way overdone but that's normal.
 
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