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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential

It's been cold since Wednesday, so it won't take much ice on top of snow to make the roads bad around here.
 
I was just awaken by the loudest crack of thunder. Apparently though, the cell was quite elevated and there's quite a bit of dry air through the column, because I only got a brief downpour. Probably the closest thing I've ever witnessed to a "dry" thunderstorm.

CAPE (100 J/KG) and LI's (-1) aren't impressive, but Mid-Level Lapse Rates are registering at 8.5 C/KM.
 
27/13 here after a low of 24. Clouds starting to roll in from the west. If it gets overcast early and holds temps down a few degrees below forecast, that could have a big effect on how low temperatures go when evaporational cooling starts
 
I was just awaken by the loudest crack of thunder. Apparently though, the cell was quite elevated and there's quite a bit of dry air through the column, because I only got a brief downpour. Probably the closest thing I've ever witnessed to a "dry" thunderstorm.

CAPE (100 J/KG) and LI's (-1) aren't impressive, but Mid-Level Lapse Rates are registering at 8.5 C/KM.

Dry air confirmed:

FWD.gif
 
This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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For this area the 3k was colder than the NAM but both models held temps at or just below freezing in the northern Triad through 10 a.m. The 3k had surface temps here around 31 while the NAM was at 32. But for whatever reason, the 3k accrual maps were less than the NAM (for the Triad)
 
This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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I don’t think we get anything in the upstate. Except for close to the NC/SC border


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This is one of those events where the upstate could see more Sleet than anything.

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No, I am afraid that this will be mostly a rain event for a lot of folks. Nothing in the thermals right now that would indicate sleet will be the predominant p-type.
 
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