Nomanslandva
Member
sleet here now as it winds down.
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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
40/39 with .21” of cold cold rain. Am I really going to hit 61 today?
The GFS did horrible with this. It kept all winter weather north of the VA/NC line and even had primarily rain for the mountains were many area have had several inches of snow since last night. Also up until Friday the GFS had Piedmont areas in NC going to the upper 40s today and that’s not even going to be close.
That's an issue with the AWOS not depicting the correct precip, there is no snow reported anywhere in NC other than maybe the mountains. I'm 40 miles north with 32 and rain.
Alright. one more pic. For me this is a tree topper event now, still 32 degrees (freezing in the trees but not near the ground):
This could be one those little events that sneaks up at the last minute and gives a quick inch or two.
Rockin’ cold rain here! No evidence of icing that I’m aware of, maybe earlier!! Rain coming down hard!!!
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
In most years yes! Not this year lol
Going to be very localized I'm afraid but I like the idea of one or two getting under a nice band, picking up a dusting to an inch maybe
Now we hold out hope for the miracle ULL, but my hopes are not high. If precip does develop in any appreciable amount, it’ll probably be a cold rain since that’s how it usually goes.
BelmontWX79
Member
Those are automated AWOS stations with no human quality control. Their precipitation discriminators have issues reporting liquid as snow especially when temps are near freezing. Those stations are most likely getting a rain freezing rain mix.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
We have been sitting at 32 since 4am and we have light glaze in the trees.
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
You don't need it! Lol but in all seriousness out of everyone on the board you'll probably be the jackpot winner
It's strange this morning. Usually in these types of events (in-situ) the farther west you go the colder (almost always). But it looks slightly colder this morning, for areas northeastward (for central NC).
Wonder if it’s because of the snow cover left over in some spots? Might’ve tipped the scales a bit.
It could be that we had a slight glaze earlier this morning, I didn’t get up early enough. We received very little snow here and have no evidence left it even snowed, so that certainly isn’t helping us out IMBY either. Looks like KRDU bottomed out at a balmy 33, so I doubt we got any icing here, either, though.
Lol CAMs aren’t excited for tomorrow 
D
Deleted member 609
Guest
The one in the middle gives you the .2 jackpot
I’d take it and claim victory
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
In post-mortem analysis I have to say the HRRR was once again very poor here. It did not get the front-end sleet/snow. It never captured the freezing rain for this morning. The NAMs also warmed too much by go-time and failed to really capture the freezing rain here (excluding their earlier colder runs, which were overdone). The RGEM/GGEM---well enough said. The GFS actually did fairly well, though it was too warm initially, but by 18Z yesterday it had this morning's area of freezing rain depicted quite well. That's how I remember it anyway.
I'm hoping we can get something in the month ahead.
I'm hoping we can get something in the month ahead.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
How do we manage to get to 33 and rain so often instead of actual snow? What is it that makes it so hard to get a couple of degrees colder? It's just bizarre how many times that happens.
JJr
Member
Spot on. During the winter months some of these models need to be unplugged. lol
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
Because it's burning up in the sky lol
Avalanche
Member
Yes the skies have to heal.
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Why do you complain so much? Didn't you get 9" the other day?
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Huh? I think I got 2 to 3. And I wasn't just talking about me. I am talking about what happens more often for everyone instead of getting snow, and just saying it is so bizarre how often it happens. Just wondering how we seem to get right to that line so many times.
Atmospheric balance.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Low was not in the right place for you. And it was just s bit too warm.
SWVAwxfan
Member
Snow has ended here. Got a total of 9".
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
In this particular case because we have -NAO, while that does favor more snow in places like RDU, it often comes with more cold rain too. -NAO on its own leads to frequent intrusions of cool, seasonable, continental polar air masses into the SE US with limited warm ups, so you’re just seasonably cool a lot of the time yet not cold enough to snow hence all the cold rains lately. It’s usually not until you can have the -NAO accompanied by at least some periodic bouts of North Pacific blocking (-EPO/WPO) that you are more likely to have more than enough cold air to snow when moisture is around. As we know from the last several winters or so, -EPO/-WPO are the opposite sensible weather wise, involve more extremes esp in temperature & are basically all or nothing type patterns
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Okay, but do we always have to get right to that 33 and rain line so often??
Because it’s a normal part of living in NC/upper SE where you get WAA aloft/marginal surface temps.
Webberweather53
Meteorologist
CADs honestly don't help in this regard. Latent heat of fusion (ice >> water & vis versa) doesn't continue above 32F, therefore days like today when you have very light ZR accrual & crappy CAD that's not able to continually reinforce cold/dry air into central NC, sfc temps quickly warm up to about freezing but slower beyond that all else considered because this latent heat process stops and actually reverses as temps warm past 32F due to melting of previous glaze.
Fountainguy97
Member
One thing is for sure. NW slopes are going to get slammed. Just don’t look at the downslope in Western NC ?
As long as it stays there and not here, I can cash in on my T lollipop tomorrow
NCSNOW
Member
Yes they are. Been showing up for days. This will be one of the best NWSF Events in a several years. Long lasting at that. Should start after midnight tonight and end wee hours wed morning. Think our poster in Erwin TN should get a few good squalls as well. Beech,Sugar will get 12+ over next 48hrs. Best place in the SE to live. Western facing slopes, espeacilly northern,central mtns. Never gets hotter than low 80s in dog days of summer. And you still get to live in the south.
NCSNOW
Member
Saw where there is a 66inch max in the smokies. Anyone want a spot to chase . Mt mitchell ,grandfather will do well also
Fountainguy97
Member
yep should be a significant event for sure. The ski resorts will be loving it. Beech,sugar area are best of both worlds. Can score in almost every snow setup. CAD, NWFS you name it.
will be interesting to see how I do in this event. Models are looking pretty good for 3-4 and maybe more.