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Wintry Jan 30-Feb 2 2021 ❄️ Potential
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Models have been holding tough with the cold push now giving even most of wake county a chance at some disruptions
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
That heavy little finger better drag it’s filthy nails through wake county
Bro .. I live in Kingsport TN and ive missed so close on 3 huge setups this season.. its an absolute nightmare.. im missing this new storm by a whole 20 miles from me .
Wouldn’t shock me if that thing put down a 0.5+ Coating somewhere, no joke
Here’s my first call map for this ice event, will adjust if I need to (likely will), I’m going the NAMs/CAMs route, better to be safe then sorry
Avalanche
Member
Does part of you feel compelled to put Forsyth and Guilford on that .2 plus? Id think it would hang on a little more Battleground Ave northward.
accu35
Member
- Joined
- Jan 5, 2017
- Messages
- 8,386
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Got one for snow? Higher mountains will snow Saturday/Sunday morning before change over over
L
Logan Is An Idiot 02
Guest
I think that could be the most surprising part of the storm. Ground will be quite cold and could over perform
Nomanslandva
Member
Yep, surface stays really cold up here. Soundings look more like sleet here but somewhere that has this cold BL and a little warmer mid levels might be in trouble.
HRW-FV3 has a decent little band, temps are in the mid-upper 30s on it which I think is to warm, this is a good test
Forevertothee
Member
As of 250 PM Friday: Guidance still on track showing a highly
amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a western ridge/eastern
trough configuration setting up by the end of the period. A strong
short wave moves out of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. This system strengthens as it moves into
the Central/Southern Appalachians by Monday morning. The resulting
upper low crosses VA/NC Monday. A strong short wave dives into the
trough over the area Monday night with the trough moving to the
coast during the day Tuesday. The associated low pressure system
moves east Saturday night taking on a Miller B configuration on
Sunday. The dry slot between the OH Valley and coastal low moves in
Sunday afternoon and remains over the area Sunday night. However,
copious low level moisture remains over the area through Monday as a
NW flow precip event sets up. The NW flow and moisture linger Monday
night then slowly taper off Tuesday.
The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out
a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
the expected p-types and associated amounts.
Expect all rain for Sunday afternoon as the warm conveyor belt
precip comes to an end. However, the lull in precip will be short
lived, esp across the mtns, as upper low and attendant wrap-around
moisture begins to move across the area. Snow levels will be
plummeting under strong cold advection Sunday night. Northwest flow
showers will develop during this time, with snow first developing
over the higher elevations before snow levels fall to the valley
floors by daybreak Monday. Additional light snow accums will be
likely Sunday night and continue through the day Monday, mainly
above 3000` or so along the TN border. Expect at least an Advisory
will be needed for these snow showers. That said, some showers may
break containment and move out across the foothills and piedmont on
Monday. Whether conditions will be cold enough for snow to mix in is
yet to be determined.
amplified pattern over the CONUS, with a western ridge/eastern
trough configuration setting up by the end of the period. A strong
short wave moves out of the Mid-MS Valley to the Ohio Valley/Great
Lakes by Sunday morning. This system strengthens as it moves into
the Central/Southern Appalachians by Monday morning. The resulting
upper low crosses VA/NC Monday. A strong short wave dives into the
trough over the area Monday night with the trough moving to the
coast during the day Tuesday. The associated low pressure system
moves east Saturday night taking on a Miller B configuration on
Sunday. The dry slot between the OH Valley and coastal low moves in
Sunday afternoon and remains over the area Sunday night. However,
copious low level moisture remains over the area through Monday as a
NW flow precip event sets up. The NW flow and moisture linger Monday
night then slowly taper off Tuesday.
The question, as always, how much cold air will be associated with
this system. The air mass ahead of this system is relatively cold
and a strong in situ CAD does set up by Sunday morning. A strong
warm nose develops with a strong H85 southerly flow, WAA, and
isentropic lift pattern. This is seen in the partial thickness and
forecast soundings. P-type looks to be typical for a Miller B type
system. Precip starts out as snow/sleet as moisture and evaporative
cooling cools profiles to the wet bulb temps. Precip changes over to
freezing rain/rain from south to north as the warm nose kicks in.
Freezing rain/rain will last longest along and near the Blue Ridge
where the cold surface air can hold on the longest. For now, it
looks like the higher combination of p-types will be over the
counties along the Blue Ridge escarpment and east along the I-40
corridor to Iredell County. In general 2 to 4 inches of a snow/sleet
mix will combine with around a tenth of an inch of ice over these
areas. A Winter Storm Watch will be issued for these areas. Expect
lesser amounts of a wintry mix over the rest of the NC mountains and
NC Southern Piedmont north to Rowan and Davie Counties. Expect an
Advisory will be needed for much of this area. It is still uncertain
how much of a mix will fall over the NE GA and Upstate mountains. It
is possible an Advisory will be needed there as well. Can`t rule out
a mix at onset south of these areas, but for now, any accumulation
would be very light with precip quickly changing over to rain. Of
course, even a small chance in temps surface or aloft would change
the expected p-types and associated amounts.
Expect all rain for Sunday afternoon as the warm conveyor belt
precip comes to an end. However, the lull in precip will be short
lived, esp across the mtns, as upper low and attendant wrap-around
moisture begins to move across the area. Snow levels will be
plummeting under strong cold advection Sunday night. Northwest flow
showers will develop during this time, with snow first developing
over the higher elevations before snow levels fall to the valley
floors by daybreak Monday. Additional light snow accums will be
likely Sunday night and continue through the day Monday, mainly
above 3000` or so along the TN border. Expect at least an Advisory
will be needed for these snow showers. That said, some showers may
break containment and move out across the foothills and piedmont on
Monday. Whether conditions will be cold enough for snow to mix in is
yet to be determined.
Looks like the Ukie is adjusting/playing catch-up 
How this goes will determine how our event goes .. so many possibility’sHRW-FV3 has a decent little band, temps are in the mid-upper 30s on it which I think is to warm, this is a good testView attachment 69214View attachment 69215
cyclogent
Member
impressive flizzard shaping up Monday morning for areas west of the Apps
Overperformer written all over it. 
Lol hrrr is slowly correcting 
?