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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Updated map, could be some snow falling in the air from CLT-RAH with the northern sections perhaps picking up a dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces depending on where the deformation band sets up, also included the NW ATL suburbs with a shot at some snow falling as it seems like a legitimate possibility. as you get north towards the triad/NW Piedmont, it looks to be slightly colder/longer duration of snow after the switchover associated with the backside band, so there may be a better shot at accumulating snow on grassy surfaces, east of 77 and along-north of I-40. As you get into VA there where amounts pick up quite a bit, I’m not saying ground temps are lowering this event a bunch, but they don’t help and air temps look somewhat marginal with ratios around 6-8:1, those 10:1 ratio maps aren’t really showing what’s really going on. but there could certainly be a few areas that pick up 6” or even more then that in VA especially under the extreme 850mb FGEN band. and especially in the NC mountains, esp the blue ridge where higher amounts (6+” to double digits look more likely) I should have put another color for the mountains but got lazy.@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @LukeBarrette @SWVAwxfan sit pretty with this one. 30773BC1-8667-43C4-965F-09EE5D7F1123.jpeg
 
Latest HRRR
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Seems to happen every time where the backend of precip is faster then modeled

Happens almost every single time . You can tell it's slowing as H5 is trying to dig but it's still making nice eastward progress . Will be out of my are by 10 for sure


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The slightest of southward shifts all day, just a little more would do a world of good for NC peeps

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Many of us in central NC are right on the line of seeing something nice (>1") or very little to none. Shifts of 20 miles are huge at this point. I would take that outcome and run.
 
The slightest of southward shifts all day, just a little more would do a world of good for NC peeps

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I was surprised the RGEM didn’t tick south. Definitely gives me pause. I’m just hoping to see a nice burst of flakes in the air. Looks like you should get at least an inch on the ground? What are you thinking for your area?
 
McDowell Burke and Caldwell under a WWA for up to one inch. We'll see I'd feel better if I was back toward the triangle.
 
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