Loganville Winter
Member
And probably a flood watch or warning as well?
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Snowflowxxl
Member
Friday I had a flood warning and also a wind advisory today.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
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Snownut
Member
What? Isn't he below 85? My impression was upstate wouldn't see anything. This is one confusing Storm. ULLs has mind's of their on.
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DadOfJax
Member
Westward trends are not pretty
Tarheel1
I TOLD YALL IT WASN’T GOING TO SNOW
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JB (Robert) has spoken! Sorry Jimmy
Updated map, could be some snow falling in the air from CLT-RAH with the northern sections perhaps picking up a dusting on grassy/elevated surfaces depending on where the deformation band sets up, also included the NW ATL suburbs with a shot at some snow falling as it seems like a legitimate possibility. as you get north towards the triad/NW Piedmont, it looks to be slightly colder/longer duration of snow after the switchover associated with the backside band, so there may be a better shot at accumulating snow on grassy surfaces, east of 77 and along-north of I-40. As you get into VA there where amounts pick up quite a bit, I’m not saying ground temps are lowering this event a bunch, but they don’t help and air temps look somewhat marginal with ratios around 6-8:1, those 10:1 ratio maps aren’t really showing what’s really going on. but there could certainly be a few areas that pick up 6” or even more then that in VA especially under the extreme 850mb FGEN band. and especially in the NC mountains, esp the blue ridge where higher amounts (6+” to double digits look more likely) I should have put another color for the mountains but got lazy.@Blue_Ridge_Escarpment @LukeBarrette @SWVAwxfan sit pretty with this one. 
Latest HRRR
StormStalker
Member
Corinth, MS finally reporting heavy unknown precip.
The slightest of southward shifts all day, just a little more would do a world of good for NC peeps
Yeah that backside band would be a reason why my map busts low, very impressive
JLL1973
Member
Not looking like it. Still 36 with back edge of precip already approaching. This has got dud written all over it for here
Brent
Member
Yeah I mean I'm a casual observer here but I don't like how fast the precip is clearing out. Y'all need all the help y'all can get with everything else borderline
Seems to happen every time where the backend of precip is faster then modeled
Storm5
Member
Happens almost every single time . You can tell it's slowing as H5 is trying to dig but it's still making nice eastward progress . Will be out of my are by 10 for sure
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Many of us in central NC are right on the line of seeing something nice (>1") or very little to none. Shifts of 20 miles are huge at this point. I would take that outcome and run.
packfan98
Moderator
I was surprised the RGEM didn’t tick south. Definitely gives me pause. I’m just hoping to see a nice burst of flakes in the air. Looks like you should get at least an inch on the ground? What are you thinking for your area?
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2 more twenty mile shift south and we might really be cooking
McDowell Burke and Caldwell under a WWA for up to one inch. We'll see I'd feel better if I was back toward the triangle.
Stormlover
Member
does he give accumulations for north alabama?
The slightest of southward shifts all day, just a little more would do a world of good for NC peeps
Just another 50 miles south and I will be happy to cash in here in Raleigh. GFS is now aligning with most other models, however.
Storm5
Member
Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs
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I know Charlotte through Greensboro isn’t expected to see much, but the trend today for the 85 corridor from CLT-GSO has been pretty apparent, that’s where models most support the ULL moving over tomorrow, there’s a little bit of bust potential on the high side imo, I don’t see why some areas along that corridor don’t see a dusting tomorrow 
Should help also we are past peak heating of the day. The snow really should start expanding east in next hour or so.
DadOfJax
Member
A noticeable more northward component to the moisture fetch as well
DadOfJax
Member
Daytime heating doesn’t matter. The 500mb low is all that matters. Needs to fly east.
StormStalker
Member
Some pink showing up in Colbert/Lauderdale counties but it’s rain here 40 degrees.
Settled on Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA about 20 miles SW of Fredericksburg. Leaving in about an hour, truck is ready to go, even packed my snow shovel 
Ron Burgundy
Member
Flotown
Member
Think that's gonna slow the backside or even pivot it?
packfan98
Moderator
On this run of the HRRR, it looks like the wave is slightly more positively tilted and you can also see the confluence pressing more in the NE. As @Myfrotho704_ was saying, these slight differences can have major implications for the I-85 corridor.
NCSNOW
Member
18z GFS for the win. If only
Boo this man!
Unless it shifts south another 50 miles, I'll see some light snow as the dying deform band rolls through. To close to the low and then that dry slot are problematic but we shall see. I think you out perform me with this one
Snowflowxxl
Member
Thanks ?
DadOfJax
Member
Usually the screw zone
D
Deleted member 1449
Guest
Areas upstream are proving that rates CAN overcome very warm soil temps. But that doesn't mean the clown maps are right either. I'm not sold on any accumulations here but if we can manage to stay under that deformation band for 3 hours then maybe we can get a dusting.
December 2017 would like a word