Well they are snowFALL not accumulations
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
SimeonNC
Member
The soundings on the 18z GFS are really close for the CLT metro, especially with a lot of the area being within the 540 line.
RAP looks better for the north CLT metro/western Piedmont/NW Piedmont into the triad due to the upper level low moving over, more then anywhere else now in NC outside east of the mountains 
SimeonNC
Member
Yeah at 12z Monday on the GFS, 850s are solidly cold enough for most of NC west of 95, it's mainly a BL temp issue.
Avalanche
Member
For the snowchasers its looking like you need to be stationed near Danville to Charlottesville.
Fountainguy97
Member
Amazing how such small shifts can change things. VA was not in the game a few runs ago.
I'll take my dot of burgundy and run.
Even with the rap it’s ticking NW away from a better event for most of NC, it’s sucks but that’s a harsh reality of last minute NW trends, I’m here hoping for something under the ULL at this point 
Highway 278 and north storm. I do see a lot people getting issued a winter weather advisory for black ice on bridges and dusting of snow.
ForsythSnow
Moderator
Looks generally better for those further west but not so much for you guys in the Carolinas. Run to run changes seem to still be decently high so taking one run as the end all result is probably not the best idea. I will say that run is the best for those in GA vs the GFS and EURO runs. I guarantee a different image will come out of the 0Z runs until tomorrow morning or afternoon.
This trend is reminding me exactly of this event, similar track of the upper level low, similar backside band of snow, the only difference is the ridging on top, which actually is a reason why this storm is more prone to NW trend (that storm also NW trended in the last moment 
The GEFS mean was a large increase.
SimeonNC
Member
I'm gonna go out on a limb and say that most of NC sees snow falling out of this storm, accumulations if there are any are a whole different story. Given what I've seen on the 18z GFS which seems to be the most egregious when it comes to the NW trend so far, a flizzard is likely unless something goes wrong with the deformation band/ULL.
Blue_Ridge_Escarpment
Member
Since GSP is watching ensemble members for their forecast at this range for some reason, they’ll have to tick up their forecast.
Yeah unless we NW trend this into the SNE lol, there’s gonna at least be snowflakes on the backside given a more amped solution tugging down CAA, but the slim chances of accumulating snow outside the mountains or N Piedmont which was already low is getting lower
We do have separation between the two systems with a boundary starting to take shape working east through NC, no inclination of gulf tap with upper level moisture tail dragging.
Parker
Member
Here is a perfect example. Same model output. Top picture is snowfall and bottom pic is snow depth.
What happened to the imagination. Lol
That was….strange at best. I understand ensembles up to 4 days out but 48 hours?