Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Stormdoc]

The slightest of southward shifts all day, just a little more would do a world of good for NC peeps

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Just another 50 miles south and I will be happy to cash in here in Raleigh. GFS is now aligning with most other models, however.

 

[Storm5]

Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs


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[Myfrotho704_]

I know Charlotte through Greensboro isn’t expected to see much, but the trend today for the 85 corridor from CLT-GSO has been pretty apparent, that’s where models most support the ULL moving over tomorrow, there’s a little bit of bust potential on the high side imo, I don’t see why some areas along that corridor don’t see a dusting tomorrow

 

[TheBatman]

Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs


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Should help also we are past peak heating of the day. The snow really should start expanding east in next hour or so.

 

[DadOfJax]

Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs


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A noticeable more northward component to the moisture fetch as well

 

[DadOfJax]

Should help also we are past peak heating of the day. The snow really should start expanding east in next hour or so.

Daytime heating doesn’t matter. The 500mb low is all that matters. Needs to fly east.

 

[StormStalker]

Some pink showing up in Colbert/Lauderdale counties but it’s rain here 40 degrees.

 

[WeatherNC]

Settled on Spotsylvania Courthouse, VA about 20 miles SW of Fredericksburg. Leaving in about an hour, truck is ready to go, even packed my snow shovel

 

[Ron Burgundy]

Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs


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Yep. Here we go…

 

[Goose88]

Jerry Tracey is doing a live now & said thunder snow is a possibility

 

[Flotown]

Lots of blue starting to show on the back side of the precip . Cold air really diving SE now as H5 digs


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Think that's gonna slow the backside or even pivot it?

 

[packfan98]

On this run of the HRRR, it looks like the wave is slightly more positively tilted and you can also see the confluence pressing more in the NE. As @Myfrotho704_ was saying, these slight differences can have major implications for the I-85 corridor.

 

[Arcc]

Gut feeling says those in the red need to be prepared for disappointment.

 

[NCSNOW]

18z GFS for the win. If only

 

[CobraMedic]

Gut feeling says those in the red need to be prepared for disappointment.

Boo this man!

 

[Metwannabe]

I was surprised the RGEM didn’t tick south. Definitely gives me pause. I’m just hoping to see a nice burst of flakes in the air. Looks like you should get at least an inch on the ground? What are you thinking for your area?

Unless it shifts south another 50 miles, I'll see some light snow as the dying deform band rolls through. To close to the low and then that dry slot are problematic but we shall see. I think you out perform me with this one

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Gut feeling says those in the red need to be prepared for disappointment.

Thanks ?

 

[DadOfJax]

Gut feeling says those in the red need to be prepared for disappointment.

Usually the screw zone

 

[Deleted member 1449]

Areas upstream are proving that rates CAN overcome very warm soil temps. But that doesn't mean the clown maps are right either. I'm not sold on any accumulations here but if we can manage to stay under that deformation band for 3 hours then maybe we can get a dusting.

 

[neelsamb]

Usually the screw zone

December 2017 would like a word