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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

Winter STorm Warning
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If anyone has a 12z Euro 850 map from WX bell, mid Atlantic high res around 24hrs I would appreciate it. Still working to nail down exactly where we are going, one thing is for sure we will be on 95 north around 730 this evening. Area around or just NW or NE of Richmond.
 
DarkKnight said:
I think that is the right call. I also agree with there 2-3 inch storm totals. Could you have imagine what this system could have been if we had cold ahead of this system.
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You wouldn't get a system like this if you already had cold in place. This upper level system is being amplified by the ridge ahead of it.
 
WeatherNC said:
If anyone has a 12z Euro 850 map from WX bell, mid Atlantic high res around 24hrs I would appreciate it. Still working to nail down exactly where we are going, one thing is for sure we will be on 95 north around 730 this evening. Area around or just NW or NE of Richmond.
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I wonder what your opinion is on the latest model trends today.
 
GaSnowhound said:
Monger, just checking in from the southern social circle burbs (just N of i20). Really hoping we can get this thing to hang together long enough to scratch out something before it pivots north!! I’m hoping for a 3/09 scenario?
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Man, did you see those modeled 50mpf wind gust over our head right as the upper low is going by? Yeah, if there's ever a chance for some crazy, unexpected upper-level low shenanigans, this is it.
 
Thundersnow mentioned for my area by the NWS, now that is a first!

Monday
Rain and snow showers before 11am, then a chance of rain showers between 11am and 1pm. Some thunder is also possible. High near 47. Breezy, with a north wind 11 to 21 mph, with gusts as high as 37 mph. Chance of precipitation is 80%. Little or no snow accumulation expected.
 
Uncertainty over accumulations remains very high given the present
very warm profiles, the warm ground, and the speed of the system
overnight through Monday morning. However, the forcing is tremendous
tonight as upper jetlet divergence ahead of the approaching wave
sharpens up quickly this evening. A mid-level deformation zone will
cross the region mainly from 08Z to 12Z and bring locally very heavy
snow rates, at least in the places cold enough for snow. Saturated
geopotential vorticity fields also indicate some thundersnow could
be possible in the heaviest rates late tonight. Amounts have been
boosted to 10 to 12 inches in the highest peaks of the Smokies. The
snow will end as NW upslope snowfall in the TN border counties
Monday, tapering off in the afternoon. Black ice will be a concern
beyond the Warning/Advisory period.
 
Stormlover said:
I think there could be some power outages with the heavy wet snow, and aloft the ground temps won't be an issue.
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Definitely. Also the wet ground makes it worse. We had a ULL back in January 2013 that dumped about 3” of heavy wet snow after two days of monsoon and had power knocked out from that IMBY. There’s some wind, too.
 
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