Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs

[Snownut]

Okay, the problem if you're not in Travelers Rest or on Sassafrass Mountain is the column isnt supportive of anything but rain. You're at 40/40 during the height.

I'm in Northern near Hwy 11

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[ColdCoreLow]

View attachment 101149
12z GEFS another increase.

Will we see the purple extend south toward BHM next run?

 

[TheBatman]

SREF Plumes huge increase on morning run. We will see here in couple hours and see what next runs does.

 

[Oconeexman]

But yet the models keep showing the snow line down into the upstate as posted above

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That's an ensemble and it's a clown map. Unless a clown map shows snow down below 85 then I wouldn't put a lot of stock in it.

 

[BullCityWx]

I'm in Northern near Hwy 11

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I just dont see how your column can trend to anything significant.

 

[jackendrickwx]

I'm in Northern near Hwy 11

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You -could- see flakes fly. I wouldn’t bank on it or write it off. But I’d be surprised to see accumulations (idk your elevation)

 

[Snownut]

I just dont see how your column can trend to anything significant.

I haven't been talking about anything "Significant" I've just said that areas above 85 could see Flakes flying. I know there will be Nothing "Significant"

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[DadOfJax]

The trends for Alabama have been incredible the past 36 hours. I said this had northeast AL written all over it, and I’m sticking to it. Somewhere between I20 and the state line, east of I65 is going to get plastered….I’m calling 6+ of actual accumulation with major travel issues on Monday.

 

[BullCityWx]

I'm not saying it can't happen but no where in SC below 3000ft is there a sounding below freezing until the moisture is gone. I've pulled soundings from all over and just haven't seen it.

and if there was a way to find a snow column, this man would've found it.

 

[Snow_chaser]

The trends for Alabama have been incredible the past 36 hours. I said this had northeast AL written all over it, and I’m sticking to it. Somewhere between I20 and the state line, east of I65 is going to get plastered….I’m calling 6+ of actual accumulation with major travel issues on Monday.

I know it’s a total different setup, but that foot of snow we got a couple years ago the first week of Dec was a total surprise to everyone. It was a narrow area that got it I think. I’m in NW Paulding in GA and we got a foot lol

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This might be a stretch but I do wonder if warmer soil temps (widespread upper 50s/low 60s) could mean a slightly warmer BL then modeled for many areas

 

[JHS]

I haven't been talking about anything "Significant" I've just said that areas above 85 could see Flakes flying. I know there will be Nothing "Significant"

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GSP actually has rain and snow mixed in the forecast for tomorrow morning all the way down into the city of Greenville. IF that happened places like TR, Landrum, and maybe Pickens could possibly go over to all snow for a little while.

 

[Rosie]

I know it’s a total different setup, but that foot of snow we got a couple years ago the first week of Dec was a total surprise to everyone. It was a narrow area that got it I think. I’m in NW Paulding in GA and we got a foot lol

Got a foot here, no power?

 

[Philconnors]

These ULLs seem to be our best snows here in N central AL. They aren’t our biggest but I like our chances. The dynamic cooling is very much needed to get snow. Especially with the marginal (for a snow storm) cold setup.


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[Tarheel1]

GSP actually has rain and snow mixed in the forecast for tomorrow morning all the way down into the city of Greenville. IF that happened places like TR, Landrum, and maybe Pickens could possibly go over to all snow for a little while.

Looks like a Nov 1 2014 type snow! - the 5” in TR

 

[Jessy89]

South Carolina upstate. I wouldn’t at all be surprised to see maybe 1/2-1 north of highway 11. South of there maybe a novelty flake while your asleep.


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[Dewpoint Dan]

These ULLs seem to be our best snows here in N central AL. They aren’t our biggest but I like our chances. The dynamic cooling is very much needed to get snow. Especially with the marginal (for a snow storm) cold setup.


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This has AL surprise snow written all over it. Not as confident for GA but i think someone in AL will get 6".

 

[Snownut]

GSP actually has rain and snow mixed in the forecast for tomorrow morning all the way down into the city of Greenville. IF that happened places like TR, Landrum, and maybe Pickens could possibly go over to all snow for a little while.

You can't tell some of these people that.

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[DixieBlizzard]

This has AL surprise snow written all over it. Not as confident for GA but i think someone in AL will get 6".

Hell I give up then. If Dewpoint Dan doesn't see it for GA.......

 

[CobraMedic]

The trends for Alabama have been incredible the past 36 hours. I said this had northeast AL written all over it, and I’m sticking to it. Somewhere between I20 and the state line, east of I65 is going to get plastered….I’m calling 6+ of actual accumulation with major travel issues on Monday.

Just out of curiosity, is there some scientific formula or something out there that deals with how much snow it takes to cool down ground temps before it starts to stick? I just find it hard to believe that 6 inches would be enough to cause travel issues with ground temps so warm. Not saying your wrong by any means, I am hoping it happens. But I have my doubts.