The wind gusts are nasty as well as the STP parameters in SE NC
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Wintry Jan 2-4 2022 Winter Weather Event/Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
sigwx
Member
I like Jill she is very good at her job...
HSVweather
Member
Unfortunately, AL is dealing with the same soil temperatures as those in NC. I would be shocked if anyone got 4 inches.
Philconnors
Member
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Timing will help AL with the snow falling at night.
True, but I don't think the time of day is as big of a factor in January with a low sun angle. Regardless, those soil temperatures are going to be a major probibitor.
NoSnowATL
Member
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
2024 Supporter
2017-2023 Supporter
Same thing for people in va and Nc, but you gotta remember how warm its been. Going to be tough to overcome.
Dewpoint Dan
Member
Amazing how quickly the roads can get that cold considering they were near 60 just 12 hours ago.
Yep, think the biggest amounts outside of VA will maybe even close to 2 inches at the very best, 6:1-8:1 ratios don’t help at all either
One thing will help soil temps is these winds going 15-20 mph help cooling the ground quicker.
Stormlover
Member
SREF mean is now over 3 1/2 inches for Huntsville, with about 7 members over 5 inches
Soil temps are overrated, besides grass and leaves cool down much faster than the soil. The big issue here is with this type of “comma” head band is that the models often miss how quickly it moves through.
RollTide18
Member
Way down here in south Alabama, hoping to see some flurries, often flurries can fly further south than modeled, we’ll see.
tucker
Member
Some West TN reports
Parker
Member
There we go. If my yard looks like that then I’ll be tickled
DadOfJax
Member
Energy transfer is usually brutal, but our digging is a little further East this time. I think north GA deals with the transfer this time.
B
Brick Tamland
Guest
Update from Greg Fishel.
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Well, I still think we'll see snowflakes in the Triangle during the day tomorrow, but I'm afraid the chance of seeing accumulating snow is dwindling. The radiosonde (weather balloon) data that came in this morning had an impact on both the US and European models, in that the track of the developing low pressure area in Georgia has shifted ever so slightly to the north and west. That means a warmer environment when the most intense upward motion occurs, which in turn implies rain. Much colder air will begin to pour in on strong northerly winds after 7am, but in order to get accumulating snow, we need strong vertical motion and cold air simultaneously, and that may very well turn out to be the missing tandem for snow lovers.
Now, there have been times where we see one anomalous set of model runs shift away from the original solution, only to return to that original solution 12 hours later. So, I will be plotting maps hourly, starting this evening, to make sure this system is "behaving" itself! Even with this shift, my good friends in Roxboro stand the best chance of seeing a Winter Wonderland tomorrow am.
Many of asked me over the years as to why the best chance of snow always appears to be northwest of Raleigh. Well, it's not quite this simple, but this time of year, the ocean water temperatures are usually warmer than the air inland. That warm ocean water warms the air above it, and anytime there is any component of the wind coming from the east, that milder ocean air begins to have an impact. The closer you are to the coast, the greater the impact, and the farther away, the lesser the impact. Roxboro just happens on average to be just far enough away from the coast to escape that warming influence.
A note to snow lovers: Never, ever, give up!!! I've always tried to shoot straight with you. I try to forecast what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. And sometimes, that's very challenging! More later!
SUNDAY AFTERNOON UPDATE
Well, I still think we'll see snowflakes in the Triangle during the day tomorrow, but I'm afraid the chance of seeing accumulating snow is dwindling. The radiosonde (weather balloon) data that came in this morning had an impact on both the US and European models, in that the track of the developing low pressure area in Georgia has shifted ever so slightly to the north and west. That means a warmer environment when the most intense upward motion occurs, which in turn implies rain. Much colder air will begin to pour in on strong northerly winds after 7am, but in order to get accumulating snow, we need strong vertical motion and cold air simultaneously, and that may very well turn out to be the missing tandem for snow lovers.
Now, there have been times where we see one anomalous set of model runs shift away from the original solution, only to return to that original solution 12 hours later. So, I will be plotting maps hourly, starting this evening, to make sure this system is "behaving" itself! Even with this shift, my good friends in Roxboro stand the best chance of seeing a Winter Wonderland tomorrow am.
Many of asked me over the years as to why the best chance of snow always appears to be northwest of Raleigh. Well, it's not quite this simple, but this time of year, the ocean water temperatures are usually warmer than the air inland. That warm ocean water warms the air above it, and anytime there is any component of the wind coming from the east, that milder ocean air begins to have an impact. The closer you are to the coast, the greater the impact, and the farther away, the lesser the impact. Roxboro just happens on average to be just far enough away from the coast to escape that warming influence.
A note to snow lovers: Never, ever, give up!!! I've always tried to shoot straight with you. I try to forecast what I think will happen, not what I want to happen. And sometimes, that's very challenging! More later!
I am interested to see this system start amping up in the next few hours. It should start up soon. I hope lol. 