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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Just a question for the mets. Does it look to you like the models are starting to trend towards an earlier phase? And if it does phase alot earlier
what impacts would that have for the upper part of the SE?
 
I would hazard a guess that Peachtree City may add Forsyth and Cherokee county to the Winter Storm Watch this afternoon. Seems probably we could see 2+ inches of snow in those counties. I’d also bet they throw up a Winter Weather Advisory for right along 20 and everyone else north of 20
 
Thinking Memphis will need to expand their Watch area south if these short term models continue to trend south of the TN/MS border.
 
jrips27 said:
I would hazard a guess that Peachtree City may add Forsyth and Cherokee county to the Winter Storm Watch this afternoon. Seems probably we could see 2+ inches of snow in those counties. I’d also bet they throw up a Winter Weather Advisory for right along 20 and everyone else north of 20
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They seemed to have hinted at the advisory level stuff for the I-20 corridor in the SWS they issued this morning. Up to 2 inches (their wording) would be advisory criteria.

At this point, I'm thinking that this will be more of a novelty/nuisance for in-town Atlanta. Just can't see it being anything more than that.
 
Showmeyourtds said:
They seemed to have hinted at the advisory level stuff for the I-20 corridor in the SWS they issued this morning. Up to 2 inches (their wording) would be advisory criteria.

At this point, I'm thinking that this will be more of a novelty/nuisance for in-town Atlanta. Just can't see it being anything more than that.
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I think it is going to much more pronounced than what you are predicting, just my gut feeling.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Thinking Memphis will need to expand their Watch area south if these short term models continue to trend south of the TN/MS border.
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Snowflowxxl said:
Rap has ATL getting crippling ice lolz

model
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Pretty sure they know what they are doing. Memphis has some of the best veterans at the office.


Sent from my iPhone using Tapatalk
 
G
jrips27 said:
I would hazard a guess that Peachtree City may add Forsyth and Cherokee county to the Winter Storm Watch this afternoon. Seems probably we could see 2+ inches of snow in those counties. I’d also bet they throw up a Winter Weather Advisory for right along 20 and everyone else north of 20
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I think Gwinnett will be today as well.
 
While most modeling seems to have a general consensus on amounts, p-type, etc, this like any other storm we track in the south is going to be more than 12 hours and below event. There is just so many small features that some modeling isn't picking up on yet. And still so many unknowns in regards to the strength of the CAD and the low pressure and ULL that could possibly bring in some backend stuff.
 
I still like Boone but man does the Canadian suite give me pause. Don’t have to decide until tomorrow morning but prepping as if I am going. Need to feel good about chance for 18”

We have chased in this area and would stay at the same place between Boone and Blowing Rock, confirmed they have some heavy equipment for clearing out to 321.
 
Current National Blend of Models (NMB), not a bad depiction of that frozen precip "footprint" although zr probably on the low side

1642528800-IQ3oafXyCtA.png

1642528800-TVNKiCEHvrE.png
 
Just passing this on; GSP to do a noon live facebook on the correct way to measure snow and ice; video will be available after; might be cool to watch.
 
NWMSGuy said:
Thinking Memphis will need to expand their Watch area south if these short term models continue to trend south of the TN/MS border.
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I feel like most of north Mississippi will have an advisory, I think this system is definitely a tricky one to forecast, would hate to be in their shoes, but Memphis is normally spot on with their forecast.
 
metwannabe said:
Still tracks the low inland but not a bad eastward shift with frozen precip

View attachment 105470
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Yes, seems to be a slight eastward shift on most of the modeling this morning that is encouraging. We’ll see what happens! Seems the models are converting to a more sensible level SLP track, too (not over central NC through the wedge).
 
ryan1234 said:
While most modeling seems to have a general consensus on amounts, p-type, etc, this like any other storm we track in the south is going to be more than 12 hours and below event. There is just so many small features that some modeling isn't picking up on yet. And still so many unknowns in regards to the strength of the CAD and the low pressure and ULL that could possibly bring in some backend stuff.
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Something to note about the backend possibilities… the GFS has actually done really well in the past of catching onto backside snow when it ends up materializing in the Carolinas. February 2014 and January 2016 both come to mind, and I think December 2018…just something to watch
 
JtSmarts said:
CAE is doing their Facebook live at 3:30
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That's around when they will issue the watches etc. 3-4 pm usually for em'. Probably doing the live to explain to people what it means as it's being issued.
 
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