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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

strong winds associated with the LP building in the gulf!
nam3km_mslp_wind_seus_41.png
 
metwannabe said:
3k NAM major winter storm for all of Central NC, most of SC as well, even has zr all the way to the coast at the onset
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Any delay in the turn and the wedge might hang on a little longer in the NW coastal plains. Instill think we see a 2-4 hour window of sleet and ZR Sunday morning at a minimum
 
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As you can see two completely different low tracks allows for disagreements in 850mb temperatures. Very different and still have lots of time for movement north or south. Hard to believe NAM continues that low Tennessee at 999 mb before switchover to coastal low
 
Storm5 said:
The hrrr is south but it's gonna turn corner . It's crap at 48 hours anyway . Two years ago I had 6 inches plus showing from 48 down to 30 hours and ended up with nothing


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HRRR is actually a pretty darn good model. Is it perfect at 48 hours - Nope.

But as we get closer, I'd keep eye on it!
 
metwannabe said:
If this continues expect WSW to extend about 1 row of counties eastward with advisories a county over from that imho (NC I'm speaking of)

1642374000-SZPzHr54ZJc.png
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This is only a few hours of freezing rain as well .. has me skeptical that it would be able to accrue so easily and so quickly … then again temps will be in the 20’s to start with dry air so maybe it’s just the perfect recipe .. any thoughts from others would be appreciated
 
WEATHERBOYROY said:
Those dry dewpoints can sometimes dry out more of the storm than you like....and too much warm moist gulf air can sometimes bring more heat than you like...but...the 93 blizzard definitely had plenty of gulf moisture. Not quite the same dynamics here...at least not modelled
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This!!! Low deweys are your friend and enemy depending lol.

I've sat outside watching the moisture get chewed up by low deweys before - so dreadful ha. That said, low dewey better than a 33f dewey!
 
WPC:
Southeast of the heavy snow and across parts of central GA, much
of SC and NC, and along the I-95 corridor of VA into MD, freezing
rain is also likely. While freezing rain accumulations will
generally be light in VA/MD, there is increasing signal for a
significant to locally damaging ice storm across the SC and NC
Piedmont. While some of the guidance tonight is indicating in
excess of 0.75" of accretion, this is likely overdone due to
runoff from heavy rain rates and a lack of strong surface dry air
to maintain low sub-freezing wet-bulb temperatures. Still, the WSE
and NBM 90th percentiles indicate the chance for 0.5" of freezing
rain centered near Charlotte, NC and arcing both SW and NE from
there, which matches the location of the highest WPC probabilities
for more than 0.25" of accretion.
 
metwannabe said:
3k NAM major winter storm for all of Central NC, most of SC as well, even has zr all the way to the coast at the onset
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The major icing is also inching closer and closer to GA/SC line along the I-20 with some freezing rain even into Atlanta proper now. People in Augusta and even Atlanta need to watch for possisble moderate to major icing issues if the trends continue.
 
NickyBGuarantee said:
This is only a few hours of freezing rain as well .. has me skeptical that it would be able to accrue so easily and so quickly … then again temps will be in the 20’s to start with dry air so maybe it’s just the perfect recipe .. any thoughts from others would be appreciated
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Temps will be climbing fast so once it gets to 31 accrual will be done. But places further NW like northern Durham Co and Orange Co will stay below 30 longer.


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NickyBGuarantee said:
This is only a few hours of freezing rain as well .. has me skeptical that it would be able to accrue so easily and so quickly … then again temps will be in the 20’s to start with dry air so maybe it’s just the perfect recipe .. any thoughts from others would be appreciated
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As you should be skeptical of that accrual map, but if it continues to show or trend in that direction, don't be surprised for the potential of a few locations to get close to .25 (which I believe is warning criteria) also factor in a little sn/ip at the onset. The map just gives a good indication of the frozen precip footprint and to watch trends, seems to be edging eastward ever so slightly
 
CLTwx said:
WPC:
Southeast of the heavy snow and across parts of central GA, much
of SC and NC, and along the I-95 corridor of VA into MD, freezing
rain is also likely. While freezing rain accumulations will
generally be light in VA/MD, there is increasing signal for a
significant to locally damaging ice storm across the SC and NC
Piedmont. While some of the guidance tonight is indicating in
excess of 0.75" of accretion, this is likely overdone due to
runoff from heavy rain rates and a lack of strong surface dry air
to maintain low sub-freezing wet-bulb temperatures. Still, the WSE
and NBM 90th percentiles indicate the chance for 0.5" of freezing
rain centered near Charlotte, NC and arcing both SW and NE from
there, which matches the location of the highest WPC probabilities
for more than 0.25" of accretion.
Click to expand...
If you read the the next part it says that it's likely overdone due to runoff.
 
This really is a battle of just exactly where that low heads and just how much backside precip forms for anyone Atlanta Westward
 
Update on my thinking, much shorter duration of snow for the mtns, 4-8” and 3-6” foothills, 1-3” just east of there, also less ice due to quick hitting rates I think .25” around Charlotte.
 
NCHighCountryWX said:
Of concern the 6z Hires Euro has now reduced the storm to 4 hours of precipitation over most of western NC. Just 2 days ago models were depicting a 18 hour event
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I documented all the qpf outputs for models and all the latest where above1.0 except ukmet was down to .9.
You are correct, just 30 hours ago they all where 1.5-2.0 heer in the Triad and uniform back to the ridge line

My expierence with transfers is we always end up less than modeled qpf. I'll be suprised with more than .75 qpf north of 40 from Asheville to Burlington
 
ajr said:
Why is there more ice showing up in the mountains vs spots slightly east (e.g., around Hickory area)
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Wedge erodes top down not bottom up. Strongest near the surface. Hickory is lower and snug in the heart of cad. Boone is on the edge and any wind gust could send them soaring.
 
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