iGRXY
Member
Just a hair weaker and slightly further south than 6z.
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
- Thread starter SD
- Start date
Just a hair weaker and slightly further south than 6z.
Storm5
Member
Down to airport too! I think this is going to expand further southeast.
GaSnowhound
Member
I was thinking it was very short range. I’ll take the NAM at this point and hope for continued southern slide and later left turn w a hopeful underdone CAD in place!
Around 3PM today; probably.
ATLwxfan
Member
Not sure. I’m in Alpharetta and it really could be anything between 0 - and 4 inches. It’s the ice accretion that we obviously hope to avoid.
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Storm5
Member
The hrrr is south but it's gonna turn corner . It's crap at 48 hours anyway . Two years ago I had 6 inches plus showing from 48 down to 30 hours and ended up with nothing
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GaSnowhound
Member
Yeah, I was wondering if Euro and to a some degree NAM might add weight to the possibility.
Cary_Snow95
Member
Let’s watch what the kicker does here
LovingGulfLows
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It's precarious relying on dynamic cooling to get snow especially when you're not under the cold core upper level low....wouldn't put too much into the HRRR for now.
Watching the little finger of snow in N NC on Saturday afternoon. Might be a nice little teaser for many.
GaSnowhound
Member
I know this has been discussed to some degree previously but how soon will models have a better handle on how the second wave dropping dwn will effect our current system re “where the left turn occurs”? I’m assuming us Ga and maybe Nc/SC folks prefer farther east….
iGRXY
Member
NAM is a little further south and the High is a little stronger with a bit more CAD at 33.
GaSnowhound
Member
Gulf, how well do you think the modeling is handling the LP at this pt? Eg. Do you buy the more southerly track and also do you buy the N turn thru Ga vs farther east thru Carolina? I’m interested in how the next incoming wave may or may not be effecting the modeling.
Me too. Didn't your area over perform with a similar finger around valentines day in 2014 or 2015?
LovingGulfLows
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To me it really depends on the strength of the wedge come verification. The stronger the wedge, the more likely, you'll see a track further south verifiy and vice versa.
iGRXY
Member
CAD is filtering in a bit more.
WEATHERBOYROY
Member
Those dry dewpoints can sometimes dry out more of the storm than you like....and too much warm moist gulf air can sometimes bring more heat than you like...but...the 93 blizzard definitely had plenty of gulf moisture. Not quite the same dynamics here...at least not modelled
Showmeyourtds
Member
Soundings (at least on pivotal) indicate rain for the pretty color areas thru town) 850s show at 1C, so it makes sense.
I would love for this to be wrong, but there's not much room 'twixt the DPs & 2m temps here. 33/32 & rain.
I would love for this to be wrong, but there's not much room 'twixt the DPs & 2m temps here. 33/32 & rain.
NWMSGuy
Member
Looks like my county was not included in the Winter Storm Watch from Memphis this morning. It seems that most models have had the brunt of accumulations North. Now with HRRR showing south I'm starting to think I may be in a good spot for now. Haven't been in the bullseye yet regarding this system. Time will tell!
iGRXY
Member
At 42 the NAM is starting to show more dynamic cooling than previous runs.
Ray with a morning update
SimeonNC
Member
The 12z almost looks like a banana high. I wonder what would happen if that were to set up.
njbarrineau
Member
Yup! When dynamic cooling faces the warm nose, I hardly ever remember it winning.
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by 45 snow is gone from the upstate thru clt and it is all sleet. only snow is western nc at 48.
BufordWX
Member
3km Nam
iGRXY
Member
I am looking at my locations sounding at 45-51 and one thing I am noticing is the warm nose is actually a lot less. It is so close to a snow sounding.
Still sold that the NAM12km is underselling the front end snow, you can see it does show the process of dynamical cooling better this run though
3K NAM has a stronger wedge in North Georgia. Gainesville is at 28 with ZR at 10am Sunday. Yeesh
iGRXY
Member
3K now looks like the EURO and HRRR
RollTide18
Member
The low tracks through Central Alabama this time on the NAM this a less impressive wraparound snow.
Definitely up near the city
NCHighCountryWX
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Of concern the 6z Hires Euro has now reduced the storm to 4 hours of precipitation over most of western NC. Just 2 days ago models were depicting a 18 hour event
Nam 3km shows this well. Wouldn’t shock me if there’s a quick 1-3 of snow along 85 
iGRXY
Member
In fact the 3K Nam actually has around 9 hours of snow before switching over for the northern upstate along 85
This is going to continue in future runs...don't ever underestimate a CAD!
iGRXY
Member
It finally switches over to sleet by noon but this is what was picked up on the front end. This is the Kuchera as well.
3k NAM major winter storm for all of Central NC, most of SC as well, even has zr all the way to the coast at the onset
