Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[LovingGulfLows]

Really tight gradients around the ATL metro per the Euro for snow/sleet amounts.

 

[Nerman]

Euro slowed down a tick

 

[GeorgiaGirl]

Before I go try to look again for myself...was that a shift south by the Euro on the ice compared to the 0z? Because yipe...

Edit: Just looked, and it does look like it may have shifted a tick south to me.

 

[packfan98]

Here's the FRAM...very bad!

 

[WxGSO]

View attachment 104483View attachment 104485

Don't like that icy look. I would probably pare that back a bit as sleet may be more dominate in the colder areas. Somebody is going to be rocked with heavy freezing rain, though. Combine that with the winds.....

 

[GaWx]

Ice fest all the way through all of the Atlanta area per 12Z Euro before it ends as snow: get the candles ready! Never doubt the power of the wedge!

 

[packfan98]

Anybody have access to a sleet map? @Ollie Williams

 

[NEGaweather]

Before I go try to look again for myself...was that a shift south by the Euro on the ice compared to the 0z? Because yipe...

Yea it did shift south on Freezing Rain


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[WxGSO]

Here's the FRAM...very bad!

Not what you want to see if you like power. I just can't imagine a thick enough warm nose from the coast up through the foothills of NC that produces that much freezing rain. I'm hoping it's more sleet in the western Carolinas up through the Triad. Now, south and east of there doesn't look good at all.

 

[RBR71]

Anybody have access to a sleet map? @Ollie Williams

Looks very wonky

 

[KyloG]

Euro keeps dropping that low from Canada quicker...this can get even further NW if that keeps trending in that direction.

Still 4-5 days out.

 

[GaWx]

Yea it did shift south on Freezing Rain


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ZR down to below Augusta per 12Z Euro/never bet against the wedge,folks!

 

[whatalife]

 

[iGRXY]

In the upstate it looks like an initial 4-8" before the changeover But it looks like between a quarter and a half an inch of ICE on top before an additional 1-2" on the back side.

 

[Snowflowxxl]

Wouldn’t be surprised if the CAD continues to trend stronger, NAM should be telling. It very well could continue to get more amped though and just be more rain

 

[Faco Thomas]

Here's the FRAM...very bad!

Looks quite ugly for Northern GA,the Midlands of SC, Central NC and even the western Pee Dee areas. I really do hope the 850 trend colder,so we see more sleet/snow than freezing rain.

 

[Oconeexman]

View attachment 104484

Bring it to papa...mountains of ne ga, nw sc and sw nc get pummeled!

 

[Dewpoint Dan]

Ice fest all the way through all of the Atlanta area per 12Z Euro before it ends as snow: get the candles ready! Never doubt the power of the wedge!

View attachment 104492

Atl is literally right on the line. Could be mostly rain or a good bit of ice

 

[Arcc]

Best scenario for us in AL is we trend the ULL southward and we end up with another event like a week or so ago.

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 104473
Euro says hard pass on being a follower.

Hammering Anderson, GSP with snow! Gonna be a quick 2-3” thump of snow with that look! Good trends today on 12z suites!️

 

[jackendrickwx]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

 

[Tarheel1]

View attachment 104483View attachment 104485Lights out ?

@olhausen , gonna get crushed based on this map! 2 double digit snows back to back! ?

 

[GaStorm]

This amount of ice would not be a good situation at all.View attachment 104488

Maybe we can avoid these totals with more sleet?

 

[iGRXY]

Hammering Anderson, GSP with snow! Gonna be a quick 2-3” thump of snow with that look! Good trends today on 12z suites!️

Drops a solid 4-8" before the changeover per the euro.

 

[Tarheel1]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

They are on the extreme East side of the classic damming location, depends on wher me the coastal front sets up! Have seen it 50s and rain in RAH and 25 degrees and pounding sleet/ZR in Greenville, SC

 

[superjames1992]

Don't like that icy look. I would probably pare that back a bit as sleet may be more dominate in the colder areas. Somebody is going to be rocked with heavy freezing rain, though. Combine that with the winds.....

If past experience says anything, it’s that models tend to underdo IP and overdo ZR. Seems like I’ve seen a lot of storms over the years where we got IP at times we were supposed to get ZR.

 

[Shawn]

so for CAE maybe little ice to rain?

I haven't caught up with everything yet today, but I think the OP GFS comes back to reality in the next few runs, more in line with it's ensemble mean; and believe that I-20 and North is in for a rough time. The particularly warm-biased ICON has quite an ice storm, Euro, NAM would, and UKMET at this point. Euro just slams us, again. So yeah; I-20 North, watch out.

 

[RBR71]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

 

[Cary_Snow95]

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

Yeah I fully expect to surge to the upper 30s in Cary. But not sure if it’ll be before .5” of slop and zr has fallen

 

[Flotown]

Man here in far n bama we so close!!maybe we can trend back a little south

 

[GaWx]

Atl is literally right on the line. Could be mostly rain or a good bit of ice

The ZR extends all of the way to the AL border on the 12Z Euro. So, it suggests it isn’t borderline and that ATL has a good opportunity for its biggest icestorm since Feb of 2014 and the biggest on the northside since Dec of 2005!! This wedge apparently means business.

Side note: The last check on the MJO had it inside the circle then, which is favorable for an Atlanta icestorm per history.

 

[blueheronNC]

Been there done that, stick around Wake Co a while, it will make you a believer.

and Wake County specifically. Orange/Durham, sometimes. Alamance and west - not a chance.

 

[accu35]

That UUL on the Euro is following suit of the gefs. It’s digging south each run.

 

[FallsLake]

Indeed, though I don’t quite see how it takes that track with such strong CAD. Seems like it would need to be another 50-100 miles east? But I’m a modernweenie .

It switches it to rain from Raleigh, up to DC, Baltimore, NY City, and even Boston.

 

[SD]

I continue to have a hard time believing that, if the triangle start the event in the mid 20s as the euro advertises, we are able to bounce back above freezing. A lot of ice in that event

Done it many times in the past this looks pretty climo...bro. look over the nws rah past events page us1 is usually the fence that teeters around freezing with the deeper better cold about 50 miles west

 

[Flotown]

That UUL on the Euro is following suit of the gefs. It’s digging south each run.

Yeah we need it too

 

[Showmeyourtds]

For more to get into the snow, wouldn't we want this sucker to dig a bit more?

 

[SNOWMANN]

If past experience says anything, it’s that models tend to underdo IP and overdo ZR. Seems like I’ve seen a lot of storms over the years where we got IP at times we were supposed to get ZR.

This has sleetfest written all over it nw of 85.

 

[DopplerWx]

for western Carolina’s and upstate sc just have to hope we can get an inch or 2 of snow in the front band before it changes to sleet. Would be a nice storm if we can get some snow and a good bit of sleet on top.

 

[Myfrotho704_]

This setup is so cold