Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

[weather nerd]

more ice correct?

Depends on evolution/track; but for our area; probably.

 

[BullCityWx]

Interesting post from ILMRoss over on American making the case that the 18z GFS of not right.

He’s really good - I put a lot of stock in his posts.

 

[Arcc]

Yeah and the gefs was in our favor definitely. Time will tell soon

I think the board would like the hybrid. If the other scenario takes place, the noise from NC will sound like the Sports talk shows in AL today.

 

[NBAcentel]

One-two fast trends with the cutoff off cali and the more digging with the southern part of the energy and we’re gonna go back to a flatter/sheared look, it’s close

 

[Hypsometric]

One-two fast trends with the cutoff off cali or the more digging with the southern part of the energy and we’re gonna go back to a flatter/sheared look, it’s close View attachment 104061

Agreed. Regardless of which way it ultimately ends up (amped or flatter), it's a real tightrope until that energy is diving southward and I don't know that this is going to be settled definitively until Thursday evening or Friday when it's actually onshore. I think the ICON solution was a little wonky and probably extreme, but something in-between the ICON and the current op GFS/Euro solutions is probably the most likely scenario based on the current trends.

 

[SD]

Gfs is a full on Miller B now, crazy 24 hour trend

 

[accu35]

Gfs is a full on Miller B now, crazy 24 hour trendView attachment 104063
View attachment 104064

Shall I post the GEFS trend?

 

[SD]

Shall I post the GEFS trend?

Sure

 

[griteater]

18z Euro Ens Mean is a tick more suppressed

 

[Iceagewhereartthou]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

Burrel, great to see you, welcome! Always appreciate your insight for the upstate!

 

[Blue_Ridge_Escarpment]

18z Euro Ens Mean is a tick more suppressed

At 500 looks a bit north but not as amped. if I’m seeing correctly.

 

[iGRXY]

TPV looks a little further south

 

[iGRXY]

EPS definitely less amped through 108

 

[NBAcentel]

Yeah this run has a weaker low pressure around the gulf coast

 

[Jessy89]

Less amped and a tad weaker should be less Ice and more snow. Hopefully less warm nose


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[pcbjr]

Yeah this run has a weaker low pressure around the gulf coast View attachment 104075

weaker, slower and more chance to grab some cold before scooting ...

 

[iGRXY]

850’s MUCH colder this run.

 

[Ollie Williams]

The 18z Euro Control looks just like the 18z GFS though as far as track.

 

[whatalife]

 

[jrips27]

Euro Control came north some

 

[NBAcentel]

The 18z Euro Control looks just like the 18z GFS though as far as track.

Don’t think it has the same argument as the gefs vs GFS as the EC control has the same exact grid space/resolution as the EPS members itself

 

[griteater]

Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.

Good to see you in here burrel...just in time with massive CAD moving in!

Here is EPS Mean diff from last run

 

[accu35]

Euro Control came north some View attachment 104078

This looks better for MS/Al for sure

 

[NBAcentel]

Well that’s interesting, EPS mean has less of a warm nose

 

[BullCityWx]

????

 

[iGRXY]

Didn’t grit say the control was better in the long range anyways? I may be confusing him and it’s the other way around but I think I remember him saying the control was better around the day 8-10+ time frame

 

[weather nerd]

18z Euro mean is snowier for most. Holding on to some hope the amplification trend will cease over the next day.

 

[accu35]

Euro Control came north some View attachment 104078

Do you mind posting 12z vrs 18z? Thanks if you can.

 

[iGRXY]

EPS and GEFS are very similar definitely and quite the opposite of the GFS.

 

[NBAcentel]

This change at H5 might be the reason for colder/snowier, notice the energy is slightly more sheared/stretched from that cutoff near California.

 

[TheBatman]

Euro Control came north some View attachment 104078

Euro Control came north some View attachment 104078

That would be a little morw in-line with the 2014 fab feb snow.

 

[mydoortotheworld]

Webb may argue that the OP GFS may need to be taken seriously despite disagreements with its ensembles, but OP GFS vs GEFS & EPS? Idk chief. I’d like to hear his thoughts on that but I’d put money on EPS every time

 

[BullCityWx]

Can anyone remember a similar storm where the ensembles of both models were in near agreement but virulently disagreed with their OPs who sorta agreed with each other? I surely can’t.

 

[NCSNOW]

4 out of 50 track inland. 46 off the coast. Hard to bet against the gefs and eps tracks with 90% to the right side of the east coast

 

[BullCityWx]

Webb may argue that the OP GFS may need to be taken seriously despite disagreements with its ensembles, but OP GFS vs GEFS & EPS? Idk chief. I’d like to hear his thoughts on that but I’d put money on EPS every time

If someone was making me lay down money, you are absolutely right.

 

[Hypsometric]

View attachment 104079
????

The question basically boils down to: is this a resolution issue or is varying the initial conditions slightly somehow causing this? The fact there are still a handful of members well-inland makes me think it's something to do with the initial conditions.

 

[iGRXY]

Webb may argue that the OP GFS may need to be taken seriously despite disagreements with its ensembles, but OP GFS vs GEFS & EPS? Idk chief. I’d like to hear his thoughts on that but I’d put money on EPS every time

The control itched north and that kind of discredits the explanation he made. Personally I’ve seen the GFS erode CAD and drive LP right through CAD for years now. This is exactly what I expect from it in this range.

 

[BullCityWx]

The question basically boils down to: is this a resolution issue or is varying the initial conditions slightly somehow causing this? The fact there are still a handful of members well-inland makes me think it's something to do with the initial conditions.

Believe you have a solid hypothesis there

 

[NCSNOW]

Webb may argue that the OP GFS may need to be taken seriously despite disagreements with its ensembles, but OP GFS vs GEFS & EPS? Idk chief. I’d like to hear his thoughts on that but I’d put money on EPS every time

If it was the oppsite. GFS off the coast and both sets of ens inland. The GFS op would be thrown out , no questions asked

 

[NBAcentel]

Some of those EPS members look like January 2000 lol