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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Ever Conservative KILM, is still, well..... Conservative, though starting too mention the possibilities
 
KCAE:

000
FXUS62 KCAE 111138
AFDCAE

Area Forecast Discussion
National Weather Service Columbia SC
638 AM EST Tue Jan 11 2022

.LONG TERM /FRIDAY THROUGH MONDAY/...
The confidence in the overall pattern evolution and timing
continues to remain low through period. But the threat for
wintry precipitation may be increasing.

Behind the upper trough the air mass is re-enforced by
continental polar air as coastal low deepens well offshore of
the Carolinas. A strong pressure ridge 1040mb centered over
eastern Canada builds south along the eastern seaboard possibly
setting up a cold air damming situation by Saturday. The
deterministic runs have been inconsistent on details but the
latest ensemble guidance suggest a weak low may develop in the
Deep south as a deep upper low amplifies over the Carolinas and
Georgia late Saturday into Sunday. The ensembles low track east
across northern Florida is more favorable for wintry weather and
now the ECMWF is showing this. With the wintry precipitation
type probabilities increasing, introduced mixed rain and snow to
forecast with emphasis across the northern Midlands...although
considerable uncertainty remains given this is the day 5-6
period. Temperatures likely below normal over the weekend given
the situation. Seasonably cool for the Holiday next Monday as
the potential storm system moves away from the area.
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Ollie Williams said:
Sizable increase on the 06z EPS!
View attachment 103722View attachment 103723
The Control has a foot of snow down towards north GA!
View attachment 103725
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That plus the CMC plus the GFS plus the GEFS just means more sleepless nights ahead watching the trends. Consistency will be key leading into this as will be the features. The wave is just 2 to 3 days or so from land with the TPV's final location being in 3. IF we can get into that range and keep this, we're golden and primed to see a true Miller A. In addition I love how the temps on the back side barely reach above freezing for more than a few hours at a time afterwards. It'll stick around for at least 3 or 4 solid days.
 
metwannabe said:
Euro control has me and @Shaggy , Downeast and other eastern members puckering up just a little. That's too much too soon lol
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If we're not in the pink, meh

Seriously, great to be seeing a lot of different scenarios 5ish days out and most of them show a winter storm.

Hard to lean in any particular direction right now. Need to account for model bias in situations like this and also remember that we're in a period of time where the wave(s) that are important to the event is/are probably not all well-sampled. When we wake up Thursday morning, the flat vs amped question should be answered.

Then it comes down to track, high pressure placement, CAD, Gulf convection, strength and location of the 50/50, etc. But the bottom line is, at least the potential is there for a disruptive, widespread winter storm that won't immediately be wiped away by a warm-up. Fun times ahead.
 
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