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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Good Morning Everyone! Noticing a few things that I really really like so far with modeling. 1. Our TPV and 50/50L is continuing to strengthen and you're seeing a much larger cold push here. 2. A blend of the Euro and GFS with probably more emphasis on the GFS as the Euro (and really all modeling) is trending to the trough digging further SW and a more amped or likely closed off ULL solution. That's really good in my opinion as we can really get the precip cranked up and this really helps pull in substantially more cold air from our north. 3. Usually I would be very worried about mixing issues (hint the 6z GFS) especially with the more amped solution and let's be honest with ourselves, the NW trend is going to happen at some point. I don't think it will be a major NW trend like we have seen in the past but that is just how these models operate. The GFS really tries pushing our LP into the CAD dome and let me tell you folks that isn't happening with typical CAD. CAD always is under modeled and always stouter than globals can see. This is shaping up to be a super CAD. I do think we will definitely be dealing with ICE but I think it will be much more centered around I20. Also for my ATL folks, I really liked the possibility of you guys getting in on the fun a day or so ago when the ULL started really digging more on some modeling and it is taking a beautiful track to paint a major swatch up and down the 85 corridor from Georgia to the upstate and then through the piedmont.
 
KyloG said:
We know how this ends....especially for myself, RainCold and SD. ?‍♂️
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Not necessarily bad, even the Icon which looked horrible for our area had a scenario where we had initial snow, a switch to rain with temps jumping into the mid 30s, then rain (ice) with temps falling into the 20s, and then what looked like an eventual switch back to snow. Bottom line we're pretty sure there will be a storm, but we have no idea what it will do.
 
KyloG said:
We know how this ends....especially for myself, RainCold and SD. ?‍♂️
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I don't know, these late bloomers, usually favor you guys. Of course as long as they don't go crazy amped and track inland on you. Especially being modeled this cold, if this thing does not get amped near the gulf and only strengthens late on the coast, I bet you guys do better.
 
Does anyone have the Korean? Even the NAVGEM is on board lol.
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This was definitely fixing to be a much better solution. Colder 850's and the trough is digging way further SW and we already have a closed off ULL in the plains whereas the EURO never closed it off before. That is a huge step towards the GFS more amped solution.
 
Myfrotho704_ said:
This is some of the deepest and coldest CAD I’ve seen since February 2014, this storm is giving that vibe
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I'm still not sure what to do with the 540 line to my south. The world is upside down. Yeah, that's the most exciting thing about this ATM. Hopefully that doesn't fade away in the next 4 days of model runs.
 
Wild Weather Monger said:
Does anyone have the Korean? Even the NAVGEM is on board lol.
navgem_mslp_pcpn_us_20.png
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It would be hard to draw a better snowstorm surface map than that. It is absolutely perfect for much of NC, western and northern SC, Georgia, parts of AL and TN and on up into VA. What a map.
 
Rain Cold said:
If we're not in the pink, meh

Seriously, great to be seeing a lot of different scenarios 5ish days out and most of them show a winter storm.

Hard to lean in any particular direction right now. Need to account for model bias in situations like this and also remember that we're in a period of time where the wave(s) that are important to the event is/are probably not all well-sampled. When we wake up Thursday morning, the flat vs amped question should be answered.

Then it comes down to track, high pressure placement, CAD, Gulf convection, strength and location of the 50/50, etc. But the bottom line is, at least the potential is there for a disruptive, widespread winter storm that won't immediately be wiped away by a warm-up. Fun times ahead.
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Yeah, it’s really nice when the operationals and ensembles show multiple different looks and possibilities that all still lead to a winter storm. Probabilities are definitely higher than normal for this far out. Exactly where that vortex and trough axis gets established, plus the tilt of the storm are the two biggest issues, and as you say will not be resolved at this point.
 
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