Storm5
Member
When does the 18z euro run
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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs
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LovingGulfLows
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Well developed deform band on this model.
LukeBarrette
im north of 90% of people on here so yeah
Meteorology Student
Member
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2017-2023 Supporter
Might wanna move a tad east for the heaviest snow axis
It’s going right now. Out to 33
Showmeyourtds
Member
I didn’t realize the Euro ran off hours. Is this new?
Euro has been doing 18z runs for about a few years.
Well, there ya go folks. We now officially have a dependable forecast that we can all safely rely on. Thank you Birdman, for all you do...
The Euro only runs to 90hrs at 18z and 06z. The Euro Control/Ensembles run to 144 hrs during those times.
Ens is like 745
Op only goes to 90 at 7pm
Also the gfs op just had some big upgrade, but the gefs hasnt yet. FYI
18z Euro looks like it would have been more amped than 12z. Only goes out to 90
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Wait, Uptown is 1-3” while the city is safe? Have they moved uptown since I moved to durham?
accu35
Member
Is this good?
Probably not if you were close to the edge at 12z. My guess is it would result in a slightly further north storm track compared to the 12z euro
packfan98
Moderator
Depends on your region so hard to say. It could result in a more western track up the coast like the GFS. Wait an hour for the eps for more information.
mydoortotheworld
Member
Suppressed solutions continue to appear on GEFS which puts my mind at ease. Can we say the holy words “We toss!” for 18z OP??? Lol
Yeah, I was definitely being sarcastic to the world-famous Birdman. It made no sense once so ever which is what caused me to respond. Even while battling strep and possibly Covid. Anyways, I still stand by my original statement that there is still way too much time to go. Especially when narrowing accumulations by 2.4 miles...
NBAcentel
Member
Jessy89
Member
No we don’t toss because the OP definitely a scenario. However we don’t lean heavily on the OP either because the essambles still hold a lot of weight.
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packfan98
Moderator
How did the cold press look?
Is that a tad slower and less amped? Still trying to learn.
rburrel2
Member
Splitting hairs here but the 18z euro looks slightly more positively tilted compared to the 12z trough. Def more positive tilted than 18z gfs.
So what would that mean on the surface?? Low further south??
I tend to agree. Trust the GEFS if you dare. I’d rather throw out the whole model suite.
Less amperage, less warm air advection, slightly further south track. Since it only runs to hour 90, 00z run more important.
accu35
Member
Which is good I’m assuming
rburrel2
Member
Yea, more positive tilted at 90hr would in theory mean it takes longer to go neutral and then negative tilt… mean low pressure should develop a little further south and move a little farther east before making the turn.
NBAcentel
Member
850s we’re warmer, but 925s and sfc were the same, and slightly cooler at sfc across the SE. probably signaling a run that would have resulted in more sleet and freezing rain
ATLwxfan
Member
At what range do you start to focus on the op run? When there is better agreement in ensemble members?
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Another thing, some times in the past I’ve noticed the GEFS to almost lag a run. Watch 0z to see if the members look more like the 18z OP.
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Well now the gang is definitely all here!
That 18z Euro is not just a little warmer at 850, its a warning shot and quite a big change vs 12z.
Avalanche
Member
850's still look supportive.
Us in AL, MS and west GA need to maintain that hybrid look or more amped farther west track of the low after the transfer. The 18z GFS was a dead smack Miller B which really hurts us.
Hypsometric
Member
18z Euro continues the trend of being tugged more by the upper low (ala the ICON).
more ice correct?
I’m interested in euro control and it’s 18z ensembles
accu35
Member
Yeah and the gefs was in our favor definitely. Time will tell soon
Interesting post from ILMRoss over on American making the case that the 18z GFS of not right.
No there's a little truth to that. SLPs want to ride ribbons of low level vorticity, which is the fancy pants way of saying "wind shifts". During CAD wedges, there's an area (typically off the coast) where the NE winds of the wedge butt directly against the SW or SE flowing winds off the coast. This is an area of natural "spin". When upper air energy is close by that spin gets stretched and spins faster (think the common ballerina analogy where it spins faster when the ballerina brings body closer together).
So the GFS has this. I've tried to put in some arrows below showing wind speed and where this "ribbon" exists and where you'd expect the LLC to ride. This is basically why all the mets are flummoxed as to why the GFS wants to barrel this thing up 95.