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Wintry Jan 15-16 Winter Storm Discussion & Obs

Atlanta, Am I missing something here???
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent
SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s
SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s
 
bigstick10 said:
Atlanta, Am I missing something here???
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent
SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s
SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s
Click to expand...
FFC says a rain event for Atlanta with a slight chance of a wintry mix in the northern suburbs.
 
bigstick10 said:
Atlanta, Am I missing something here???
SATURDAY NIGHT
Mostly cloudy with a chance of showers. Chance of snow showers after midnight. Lows in the lower 30s. Chance of precipitation 30 percent
SUNDAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the lower 40s
SUNDAY NIGHT
Partly cloudy. Lows in the upper 20s
MARTIN LUTHER KING JR DAY
Mostly sunny. Highs in the upper 40s
Click to expand...
No weather channel/site are going to pull the trigger on significant verbiage on winter threat 5 days out on models... If all these models still are close agreement including short range by Thursday afternoon expect it to change real quick
 
Dewpoint Dan said:
FFC says a rain event for Atlanta with a slight chance of a wintry mix in the northern suburbs.
Click to expand...
It's too far out from the event for the FCC to make a solid statement on this storm. See what they say on Wed or Thursday. If they start changing their statement then you can start to monitor the storm with excitement.
 
Nice to wake up to 13 new pages of storm tracking! Thanks for everyone's PBP by the way, it's appreciated.

At this point I'm not yet buying the GFS amped up solution. Again, this seems really unique, but I don't see that the energy is going to have enough time to get under us, go neutral/negative tilt and crush us. The Ukmet/Euro not taking that road is a big red flag IMO. If today they close off and start to tilt under us, then let's go. Now that I say that watch this thing over amp and hit DC again! lol.

Great thing about this one so far IMBY, it's cold!
 
This is by far the best look the Midlands of SC has had since I moved down here back in 2018. These last 3 winters have been a major struggle. Watching Houston cashing on a winterstorm,while we ended with cold rain. Watch Sheveport and Austin score multiple times was also brutal to watch. Finally it appears it's our turn to get a big hit based on CMC, EPS,GEFS, etc. If there's one cocnern I have is that the 6Z GFS has a very Amped up system and it would be rain/ice for the Midlands instead of snow. I want to see something like CMC showed. Amped up enough to deliver big totals. Not too amped to point where we ether have to settle for Ice or even cold rain.
 
malak05 said:
No weather channel/site are going to pull the trigger on significant verbiage on winter threat 5 days out on models... If all these models still are close agreement including short range by Thursday afternoon expect it to change real quick
Click to expand...
Correct, for a example the 93 storm wasn’t spoken about in the news until 72hrs out. Even tho burns and Ken cook said they saw it on the models 5 days out.
 
The forecast grid was maybe not updated because FFC has a 30% chance of rn/sn mix Saturday night and 30% chance of snow Sunday.

EDIT: TWC isn’t wasting time already saying about 1 inch of snow expected Sunday.?
 

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I'll put this caveat out there for all the good neighbors on here. Didnt and never give it 2 cents thought cause of having 4x4 etc. But we where in the store last nght, slow traffic. As many know lots of bare spots on shelves. Ya'll know whats going to happen latter this week when the News/NWS starts putting out the ole snow forecast. We (Atleast I do ) usually laugh at it as it never fails for the Bread/Milk etc to be completly gobbled up. This time there will be an added pre and post hangover from the Grocery Raid that is sure to happen Friday into saturday morning.
 
malak05 said:
No weather channel/site are going to pull the trigger on significant verbiage on winter threat 5 days out on models... If all these models still are close agreement including short range by Thursday afternoon expect it to change real quick
Click to expand...
I bet TWC will be all about it this morning !
 
SnowNiner said:
Nice to wake up to 13 new pages of storm tracking! Thanks for everyone's PBP by the way, it's appreciated.

At this point I'm not yet buying the GFS amped up solution. Again, this seems really unique, but I don't see that the energy is going to have enough time to get under us, go neutral/negative tilt and crush us. The Ukmet/Euro not taking that road is a big red flag IMO. If today they close off and start to tilt under us, then let's go. Now that I say that watch this thing over amp and hit DC again! lol.

Great thing about this one so far IMBY, it's cold!
Click to expand...
I think the Euro was actually already looking more amped over it's extremely flat weak 12z run yesterday. Don't forget, the euro a couple days back first had the monster amped up system right up I-95. At least now it's starting further south so there's wiggle room.
 
From weatherforyou.com Atlanta, hmmm

Sunday Jan 16
Snow
Day: Cloudy with snow. Highs around 34°F. Wind chill values as low as 20°F. East northeast wind to 18 MPH, gusting to 44 MPH. Chance of precipitation 70 percent.
Wintry Mix
Night: Partly cloudy with rain and snow. Lows around 27°F. Wind chill values as low as 17°F. West northwest wind 9 to 14 MPH, gusting to 34 MPH. Chance of precipitation 20 percent.
Monday Jan 17
Partly Cloudy
Day: Partly cloudy. Highs around 33°F. Wind chill values as low as 16°F. West northwest wind to 13 MPH, gusting to 31 MPH.
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metwannabe said:
I think the Euro was actually already looking more amped over it's extremely flat weak 12z run yesterday. Don't forget, the euro a couple days back first had the monster amped up system right up I-95. At least now it's starting further south so there's wiggle room.
Click to expand...

Agreed, it's getting better. I'd like to see them both at least get neutral tilt under us and get away from being so flat. But let's not get crazy. I'd like to keep this storm in the SE and not the mid-Atlantic. Don't even want what the 6Z GFS showed, too amped, too much mixing. We need our porridge just right.
 
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